The column was originally published on RealMoney on June 8 at 2:10 p.m. EDT.
The Internet continues to evolve as the distinctions made between Net service providers, portals and search engines are dissolving. For Internet companies, the fight is on for advertising dollars, high-speed Internet subscribers, content, pay-for-clicks, content and optional services. The landscape is changing in many ways, with a new wave of Internet commerce facing concerns for safety against hackers, viruses and spam.
The relative new kid on the block,
, has had the advantage as it has evolved after others crashed and burned when the technology bubble burst in 2000. Some have made better comebacks than others, some have work to do to continue their turnaround stories, and some may still be struggling for survival.
In this column, I will profile the risk-reward for select stocks in the Internet segment, but this is an ongoing story that I will continue to focus on as the landscape changes.
Some of the newer technologies and trends involved include the migration of more homes to high-speed access via DSL, cable modem or WiFi/WiMax. Communication methods are also changing via instant messaging, streaming video and voice-over-Internet protocol. Advanced and more enriched broadband features as well as the newest devices to get online and use the Internet will only enhance our experiences in the years ahead. It's only just begun.
In the last decade, the Internet has become a necessity in the home and office, and the usage growth has only begun. With fewer than 50% of Internet users online via high-speed access, there will be waves of new developments as this transformation continues.
My analysis of the stocks in the sector begins with Google.
Google came public last August and is now a pure momentum stock. My model shows the stock 12.2% overvalued, with a positive but overbought weekly chart profile. This makes it a pure momentum play, with the five-week modified moving average at $236.50 providing major support.
has a more favorable profile for investors. It is 31.1% undervalued, with a positive weekly chart profile. The five-week modified moving average provides support at $35.64. My model shows monthly resistance at $38.19, which should limit the upside in the near term. A weekly close below $35.64 would indicate risk to the Feb. 24 low of $30.30.
is 9.8% undervalued, with a neutral weekly chart profile. The stock appears to be stuck between $8 and $12.
is 22.6% undervalued and, like EarthLink, has a neutral weekly chart pattern. United Online appears stuck between $8.50 and $13. EarthLink and United Online are experiencing competitive pressures from
( SBC), which recently offered a $14.95-per-month DSL service.
is 32.1% undervalued, with a positive weekly chart profile. Monthly support is $35.83 with semiannual resistance at $39.06.
Richard Suttmeier is president of Global Market Consultants, Ltd., and chief market strategist for Joseph Stevens & Co., a full service brokerage firm located in Lower Manhattan. At the time of publication, he had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, but holdings can change at any time. Early in his career, Suttmeier became the first U.S. Treasury Bond Trader at Bache. He later began the government bond division at L. F. Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the technicals of the U.S. capital markets. He also has been U.S. Treasury Strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University. Under no circumstances does the information in this commentary represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback --
to send him an email.