Doug Kass fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- How the character of the market has changed.
- How Radian could be making a move.
Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Doug Kass'--and reader comments--in real time.
We Are In a Dangerous Zone
Originally published April 13 at 1:24 p.m. EST
As I have been consistently writing, the character of the market has changed.
And it is not just the failure of Wednesday's market to rally off of the morning lows.
Leading groups are rolling over--the mirror image of the last 1-3 years when we had positive rotation from group to group.
Importantly, as noted in my opening missive, there are negative ramifications (economic and geopolitical) of the sudden decline in bond yields and the recent rise in the price of gold.
Some in the bullish camp believes they will know when to sell. But, please tell me, how will they know?
Others in the bullish camp believe that we should be reactionary to a market decline and not anticipatory. But, please tell me, how will they know when to precisely react?
More questions added to my previous seven questions--but little in the way of answers, I am afraid.
Unfortunately I believe we are in a dangerous zone now--for our markets and perhaps for the world.
I am medium sized net short reflecting the concerns I have frequently expressed in my Diary.
Position: LONG SDS, SQQQ; SHORT SPY small, QQQ small.
A Quick Stroll Around the Deck
Originally published April 12 at 10:48 a.m. EST
A few odds and ends of note:
- Longtime fave Radian Group(RDN) - Get Report looks like it is making a move toward its old highs.
- Twitter(TWTR) - Get Report is up about $0.40 in the early going. I add almost every day to this large holding. I appear to be in a minority of one!
- Bonds continue to benefit from geopolitical tensions. I am using the strength to continue to short iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - Get Report.
- Banks continue to underperform, in some measure because of the low level of rates, the continued flattening in the 2s/10s curve and disappointing commercial and industrial loan demand. I would avoid all things financial for now, as you all know.
- Retail, after a few good days, looks like it is meeting some resistance.
- Consumer staples are picking up a bid today on a weaker U.S. dollar. I have been adding to Campbell Soup(CPB) - Get Report recently.
- Caterpillar(CAT) - Get Report headed back lower after Deere's(DE) - Get Report reasonably good retail sales data.
- Overall, I continue to see individual stocks and many sectors as rolling over.
- Ludacris Forecast: Steve Bannon doesn't last the week.
Position: Long RDN, TWTR large, CPB large; short TLT, CAT small.
, which Cramer manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.