IBM (IBM) - Get Report or Big Blue as it is sometimes called plunged lower on Wednesday, making a new low for the move down. IBM is now yielding 4%, which is enticing in this low rate environment, but the question is whether we want to buy it here or wait for a base to develop. With TheStreet'sQuant Ratings service upgrading IBM this morning, let's take a look at what the charts say.
In this daily bar chart of IBM, below, we can see the early price action for Wednesday. We don't know where IBM will close today but right now the chart is weak. Prices are breaking the October lows. IBM is trading below the declining 50-day moving average line as well as the declining 200-day line.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line turned down in February but turned flat in May. Today's price action is likely to turn the OBV line lower. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator had come back to the zero line from below but now I would anticipate that it turns lower again.
This weekly chart of IBM, below, does not yet show today's decline below $150 but that shouldn't reverse the indicators. IBM is below the declining 40-week moving average line. There is some support around $145-$143 from early 2016 that might slow the current decline. The weekly OBV line is weak. The MACD oscillator was narrowing recently but today's price weakness is likely to postpone a bullish crossover.
In this updated Point and Figure chart of IBM, below, we have mixed signals. We can see a bearish price target of $118 but we can also see support from $146 to $138.
Bottom-line strategy: IBM broke down this morning to a new low. A strong rally above $158 would be needed to turn the short-term chart around. Until the charts of IBM look better I think the current yield is not enough of an incentive to buy IBM now.
IBM's shares fell 4.3% to $147.44 by Wednesday's close.
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(This article originally appeared at 12:05 pm on Real Money, our premium site for active traders. Click here to get great columns like this from Bruce Kamich, Jim Cramer and other writers even earlier in the trading day.)
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