Facebook (FB) - Get Report again is making headlines for the wrong reasons, as reports say the social network's current ad and content moderation policies – or the lack thereof – are sparking dissent among employees.
Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said last week that Facebook would review its policies following the early backlash.
At the same time, investors aren’t worried that the company turmoil will affect the bottom line – at least not in the near-term.
Facebook is having a solid year in 2020, up 13% since the calendar flipped to January. The move puts Facebook among the elite top third of S&P 500 components that have managed to post positive total returns year-to-date amid the covid-19 pandemic.
Facebook’s positive stock trajectory matters right now.
As markets are gut-punched today on concern about spiking coronavirus cases around the country, buying what’s working matters.
A look back at prior crisis investing environments over the past 3 1/2 decades shows stocks that have positive six-month relative strength saw a 78.4% chance of a positive one-month forward return.
That’s about a 50% higher future win rate than the average S&P 500 stock.
Couple that with a bullish technical setup, and the deck is stacked in Facebook's favor.
To figure out how to trade it from here, we’re turning to the chart.
At a glance, Facebook’s price action has been orderly despite the volatility that’s been injected into the broad market since mid-February.
More recently, the shares have established a pretty textbook example of an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation setup that’s formed by horizontal resistance up above shares at the $240 level with uptrending support to the downside.
Put simply, as Facebook bounces in between those two technically important levels, the shares have been getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout through that $240 price ceiling.
When that happens, we’ve got a clear-cut signal that buyers are in control of the price action.
Relative strength, one of the most important indicators to watch in this environment, has been accelerating after staying relatively stagnant through mid-April.
That’s an indication that Facebook is beginning to systematically outperform the rest of the broad market.
Generally, Facebook has trailed big-tech peers during the covid-19 rebound rally. And with many of those other issues making new highs in June, Facebook is positioned to do the same here.
The buy signal comes on a material push through $240. On the flip side, $220 looks like a reasonable place to park a protective stop. If shares violate $220, then the uptrend is broken and you don’t want to own them anymore.
Until then, higher ground looks more likely than not.