Updated from 10:17 a.m. EDT
Oil is going higher. Much higher. Despite what the various media pundits say or write, there are still several bullish factors facing the energy markets, which could push prices over $200 a barrel in the not-so-distant future.
To see the full list of stocks and analysis for each stock, check out our
Here are several reasons why oil prices should continue to rise:
The continued weakening of the U.S. dollar vs. all major currencies is generally seen as a bullish indicator for commodities and for the oil market specifically. For some reason, you never hear a senator or representative mention this. Hello, Ben Bernanke, are you out there?
Right now the world is only producing 85 million barrels of oil a day, vs. world demand of 87 million barrels a day. It's simple supply vs. demand.
Byron Wein of Pequot Capital Management, who is Jim Cramer's "favorite grey beard," always reminds us that here in the U.S., on average, a single American consumes 25 barrels of oil per year. Compare this with the fact that the Chinese and Indians only consume 2 barrels of oil per year per person. Watch out.
We recently spoke with Garry Kasparov, who is arguably the greatest chess player of all time. Kasparov, who is now retired from competitive chess and extremely active in Russian politics, has been blaming the Russian government for manipulating its output of oil and natural gas.
Two years ago, when the Nymex came public, the private board members voted to create an electronic platform in which buy and sell orders could be rapidly fired out over the Internet in nanoseconds, instead of through the normal open out-cry system. Unfortunately, this had the unintended consequence of inviting the "quant" or "black-box" traders, who increase futures contracts trading volumes and volatility. I recently spoke with "Harry," a former seat-holder at the Nymex. "Harry" told me that these huge hedge fund speculators were also contributing to the spike in oil prices.
What happens if Israel really does attack Iran? Oil goes to $200 within a week.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to $150 to $170 a barrel this summer. Simply put, that is going to be a sell-fulfilling prophecy for traders.
Cramer: Factors Pumping Up Oil Prices
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With that in mind,
, outside of giants such as
, that could move substantially higher in the coming months.
is especially prepared for the prospect of $200 oil, both on the natural gas side and on the oil side. It has international exposure, but with oil that high, transportation costs will become an issue for the major oil companies. For U.S. domestic usage, the Gulf of Mexico is a strong local source. Anadarko is drilling deep to develop new fields, and it has the best rig inventory lockups in the Gulf. In both the Miocene and Lower Tertiary Prospects, it is planning on drilling an additional 10 to 15 wells for exploration and appraisal. More oil and gas means more profit
On land, Anadarko has an equally impressive record. It has identified 25,000 lower-risk drill sites and plans to drill 9,000 to 11,000 of those wells in the next five years. Those are all within Wyoming, Utah and Colorado.
The Marcellus Shale reserves in Pennsylvania haven't been fully explored or brought online yet. But with $200 oil and a corresponding higher price for natural gas, the incentive to bring these new finds up to production will be substantially higher.
Anadarko's breadth of exposure throughout the Gulf of Mexico allows the company to tie its infrastructure together for $1 billion of savings on pipeline and development costs.
Further on the natural gas side, Anadarko is developing a recently acquired property in the South China Sea. China is obviously a large user of all types of energy, so this will provide more local supply for the whole Southeast Asian area.
In the last three years, Anadarko has logged a 50% deep-water-drilling success rate. This is the highest in the industry. If oil goes to $200, then deep water consistency will allow Anadarko to charge higher fees for drilling and finds.Also, Africa exposure in Ghana is larger than Anadarko originally thought. With most oil and gas finds, every time you drill you come up with less oil. Anadarko's Ghana find is unique because every time it drills in that area, it finds that the area is larger than expected.
Anadarko is also dirty cheap, trading with a forward P/E of 12. With oil going to $200, the earnings estimates are way too low.
Another name we like for $200 oil is
. Ram, which has various oil and natural gas lines in the Barnett share coming online, should benefit as prices continue to skyrocket.
Drilling is up 100% year over year, showing that management is finally starting to take advantage of the higher oil and natural gas prices, and Ram is very cheap vs. its peers based on a price/net asset value ratio, trading at 0.53 vs. the mean average of 1.6. Management owns a large portion of the company as well.
If we think oil is going to $200, than we differently have to keep track of T. Boone Pickens'
. Boone has been on this move for a while.
Also, check out
. These could rally if and when oil hits $200.
And be sure to check out
. Passport, which booked a reported 200% return last year, has a massive "rig" portfolio.
Is $200 oil coming? We think it is, so find out how to play it by checking out the rest of the stocks in the
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