Currently, the stock hovers just below its 52-week high of $238.99, while bulls will look for shares to surpass this figure after the company reports earnings before the open on Tuesday.
Over the past 12 months, Home Depot stock is up more than 34%. That's significantly better than the 13.7% gain in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) - Get SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Report and the 3.75% decline in the SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) - Get SPDR S&P Retail ETF Report .
It's one of the reasons that Jim Cramer has Home Depot in his highly regarded retail-stock acronym, WATCH. Like FANG, WATCH is a hand-picked, best-of-the-best group of retailers with scale -- Walmart (WMT) - Get Walmart Inc. Report , Amazon (AMZN) - Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report , Target (TGT) - Get Target Corporation Report , Costco (COST) - Get Costco Wholesale Corporation Report and Home Depot.
Is the stock's run about to come to an end when it reports earnings, however, or will the good times keep on rolling with a breakout to fresh all-time highs? Let's look at the charts.
Trading Home Depot
Dating back to the fourth quarter of 2018, Home Depot stock has been trading in a rising channel (purple lines). No matter what HD stock does after the company reports earnings, I would expect this channel to remain in play afterwards.
In other words, if Home Depot stock declines in reaction to its quarterly results, I expect channel support to buoy the name should it fall that far. On the flip side, if HD shares rally, I expect channel resistance to hold the name in check should it climb that far.
Also worth mentioning is the 100-day moving average. This mark comes into play just above channel support, near $223. Should Home Depot pull back, both marks have proven to be significant so far in 2019.
A dip to the $220 to $223 area would represent a decline of about 6% to 7%, so it may not come all in one session, if it comes at all. But if it does, bulls would likely consider this area a solid risk/reward opportunity on the long side. Below channel support and the 100-day moving average, and short-term long traders can cut their losses and give HD stock more time to stabilize.
On the upside, the $239 level has been pretty clear resistance. In fact, in the short-term, Home Depot stock has an ascending triangle setup -- a bullish technical development that occurs when rising uptrend support (blue line) continues to squeeze the stock against a static level of resistance (black line).
In this case, resistance comes into play near $239. A post-earnings breakout over this mark will have bulls rejoicing, although it will be important to see HD stock hold this level as support moving forward. Channel resistance becomes the potential upside target in this event.
The bottom line: Look for a buyable dip in Home Depot stock should it decline on earnings. Otherwise, see that shares break out over $239 and more importantly, hold this level as support going forward.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.