Harley-Davidson (HOG) - Get Report shares were running low on gas Monday, off 1.9% to $38.63, after KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the iconic motorcycle maker to underweight from sector weight with a $33 price target.
Analyst Brett Andress's note to investors pointed to dealer checks, deteriorating new and used conditions and a lack of near-term catalysts for the downgrade.
Andress also said Polaris's (PII) - Get Report PII Indian Motorcycle brand recently released its Challenger model, which the analyst said "surpasses its competition in almost every important metric." The new competitor will likely disrupt "a rather complacent status quo."
The analyst the fixed fairing touring market has seen no formidable alternative, which leads him to believe that Harley-Davidson "has a lot to lose."
Harley's Road Glide bike, which represents 15% to 20% of Harley's U.S. retail units, may weigh on mix and gross profit into 2020.
Last week, Harley-Davidson posted stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings but held onto its full-year shipments guidance even as it was "encouraged" by improving global sales.
Harley-Davidson said adjusted earnings came in at 55 cents a share, down nearly 20% from the year-earlier period but 4 cents ahead of the Street consensus forecast of 51 cents. Group revenue fell 3.8% to $1.27 billion, topping analysts' estimates of $1.04 billion.
Harley-Davidson said it delivered 45,837 vehicles over the three-month period, a figure that came in at the lower end of its prior guidance and was down 5.7% from the year-earlier period.
The group's 2019 shipment forecast held in a range of 212,000 to 217,000 vehicles.