Goldman has some bullish oil trades for you.
Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) , Delek U.S. Holdings Inc. (DK) , Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) , WPX Energy (WPX) , EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) and Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) are among the U.S. and Canadian companies that will benefit from higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs analysts said in reiterating its Buy rating.
"More stable prices at levels above mid-cycle should provide a favorable environment for equities that benefit from higher (particularly coastal) oil prices with favorable corporate returns, [free cash flow] and/or debt-adjusted per share growth," Goldman analysts, including Brian Singer and Neil Mehta, wrote in a June 25 research note.
The firm forecast 2018 and fiscal year 2019 Brent oil price in the range of $70 to $80 per barrel following OPEC's agreement to target 100% compliance. The difference between compliance and where the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is at currently is about 1 million barrels, according to UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei.
Benchmark Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 1.2% to $74.68, while West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, tumbled 0.8% to $68.06 at 3:00 p.m. New York time as investors prepared for more oil to hit the markets and trade tensions sent the U.S. equities markets lower.
But because some OPEC members lack the capacity to ramp up production, the agreement implies an increase in production of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels a day, Goldman said. Other analysts including those at Seaport Global said the agreement means 900,000 barrels of production has been cleared to start returning to the market as of July 1.
Nevertheless, the agreement comes after OPEC and non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, curbed output by 1.8 million barrels a day to re-balance global crude markets. OPEC leaders reiterated their commitment to keeping the market balanced but did not provide specifics on allocations per member country.
"The combination of strong demand growth in 2018-19, involuntary disruptions and falling spare capacity can keep oil prices above mid-cycle even as potential increases in OPEC supply keep inventories from moving meaningfully below normal."
In addition to the six companies on its Conviction Buy List, Goldman sees upside for oilfield service giant Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) .
"[Schlumberger] offers higher leverage to Brent price than to WTI or Midland than its peers," the bank said. "GS is bullish on the outlook for Brent, and that should be a positive for international and offshore activity."
Schlumberger offers nearly 21% upside to $77 per share 12-month target price, including a 3% dividend yield, Goldman said.
In the worst day for U.S. equities since early April, Occidental fell 2.7% to $81.06, Delek lost 4.8% to $49.05, Pioneer slipped 2.1% to $181.81, WPX tumbled 3.4% to $17.34, EOG dipped 1.6% to $116.51, Suncor lost 3.5% to $38.76 and Schlumberger fell 2% to $65.26.
Separately, TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer said the fact that not all OPEC members can increase production because the spare capacity to do so just isn't there, is a positive for Schlumberger as "it backs CEO Paal Kibsgaard's comments that years of underinvestment are straining production capacity and global E&Ps will soon have no choice to invest."