Oil touched $100 a barrel for the second day in a row on Thursday and the stock market barely reacted. The Dow closed up 12 points and the Nasdaq finished down 6 points. The crew at CNBC's "Fast Money" took a look at oil, gold and agriculture.
Joe Terranova, Director of Trading at MBF Clearing Corp., joined the "Fast Money" crew to discuss his take on oil. Terranova explained that historically oil tends to get cheaper as the spring approaches and gas prices rise as the summer driving season approaches. He thinks this trend will increase the crack spread and benefit the refiners. Terranova recommends accumulating stock in the refiners heading into Martin Luther King Day and have the position in place by President's Day. He would then look to take profits in March if the trade works out.
Jon Najarian thinks oil is displaying a head fake and is setting up to disappoint the bulls. He suggests shorting the refiners until mid-February and then flipping to the long side. Macke thinks these trades are very complicated, so he would simply buy
United States Oil Fund
(Here's how the pros do it on Stockpickr.com
Gold hit another new high Thursday trading up to $869.10. Tim Seymour predicts that with gold performing so strongly, the miners are ripe for takeovers. Having said that, he likes
Harmony Gold Mining
for takeover plays in the gold mining sector.
Macke disagrees with Seymour and instead he would sell the mining stocks and buy the
. Najarian mentioned that the options players are selling calls on the mining names like
, Gold Fields and
. Adami maintains that if you want to participate in the mining space buy
Ag Stocks Bloom
Agriculture stocks were on fire Thursday after
reported fist-quarter profits that nearly tripled. Adami remarked that this quarter was unbelievable and the story is real. He would stay with Monsanto, but he does think it will pullback. Najarian explained that traders are moving into agriculture stocks for their safety. Macke recommended not being piggish on these stocks and taking some profits in names like
(Take a look at this portfolio on Stockpickr.com
Jobs Report Preview
The December jobs report is set to be released on Friday morning. Michael Darda, the chief economist at MKM Partners joined the "Fast Money" crew to discuss his take on the jobs report. Darda explained that the data doesn't point to the US heading into a recession, but it does suggest the economy is slowing down. He feels that stock valuations are very reasonable when compared to bonds. Darda recommends going long stocks and shorting bonds if you have a 6-to-12 month time horizon.
Macke says get long the
below $90 for a trade heading into the report. Tim Seymour explained that the bond market is pricing in a recession and he would continue to keep an eye on that development.
Word on the Street
Gaming stocks took a beating as investors grow concerned about the growth prospects in Macau. Macke thinks now is the time to build positions in names like
Las Vegas Sands
. Najarian agrees with Macke.
explodes up 8% after the company issued a bullish forecast and took a $279 million charge for legal costs related to poor investments on subprime mortgages. Adami reminded viewers that he brought up this stock in September. He now feels the valuation on STT is getting a bit rich. Macke commented that the stock rallied because the company was proactive on the mistakes it made with their money market funds tied to subprime investments.
Lenovo Group announces plans to enter the United States consumer PC market. Najarian thinks the play off this news is too short
. He wouldn't short
because he feels they're better positioned to handle the competition from Lenovo.
Activist investor Bill Ackman says
will hit $120 in the next 3 years. Macke likes Target for the long term, but he thinks Ackman is just talking his book with this lofty price target.
Bed Bath & Beyond
fell 7% in after hours trading on lower-than-expected guidance. Macke says don't buy the dip on specialty retailers like BBBY ever.
traded 2% lower on Thursday as the Bank of America downgraded continues to weigh on the chipmaker's shares. Adami doesn't understand why Intel is trading lower and he feels that he is either missing something on Intel, or it's a screaming buy. He thinks Intel's next quarter is going to be great.
Online Advertising Trade
With the Iowa Caucus set for tonight politicians continue to spend money online to raise awareness for their campaigns. JP Morgan is predicting that online spending could reach $10 billion in 2009. Najarian thinks
will benefit from this trend, but his best idea is
. Adami prefers
. Macke doesn't agree with Najarian on Yahoo. He feels Yahoo can't get out of their own way.
BRIC IPO Trade
As the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) markets continue to grow investors will see more IPO's from these emerging markets. Seymour thinks the way to play this trend is with the underwriters like
Goldman Sachs Group
Credit Suisse Group
which are the top BRIC underwriters.
Seymour also likes
for plays on moving off the Hong Kong exchange to the Shanghai. Adami also favors China Mobile. Najarian says play the exchanges like
Nasdaq Stock Market
because they will benefit from increased trading volumes from ADR transactions. He also likes UBS and he disclosed he owns all three of the above mentioned stocks. Macke agrees with Najarian on the exchanges.
Pops & Drops
traded up 8% after Piper Jaffray raised its rating on the Chinese internet portal from neutral to buy. Seymour likes SINA.
Superior Energy Services
traded up 19% after signing a $750 million contract to dismantle downed platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Adami agrees with Jim Cramer that SPN is a valuation trap. He would take profits off this pop.
traded up 3% after the defense company won two U.S. Army contracts worth $18 million. Adami loves the defense stocks into 2008.
traded up 3% on no news. Seymour explained that as oil goes above $100 coal, it is comparatively cheap and that is bullish for SSL.
fell more than 6% each after all three reported December sales that missed Wall Street estimates. Macke isn't a fan of these stocks.
fell 11% after the company reported that it will take up to $800 million in fourth-quarter acquisition charges. Najarian asks why own this stock?
fell 10% after the company reported a 1.2% decline in fourth-quarter same-stores sales. Najarian would look to buy it in the $30's.
fell 8%. Macke is still bullish and suggests buying the stock when it dips.
fell 16% on no news. Najarian would say away from SFLY.
99 Cents Only Store
fell more than 6%. Macke cautions investors not to own these stocks - retail is too hard right now.
Viewers send in the questions that they'd like the panel to answer.
John writes, "Guy, are you still bullish on
even with recession talk and a spending slowdown by consumers? It looks like it's ready to turn over on the charts." Adami expressed that he is still bullish on MA because people are spending money with plastic and moving away from using cash.
Bob wants to know,"What's going on with
. It seems like we are having a McMess lately?" Macke thinks McDonald's is just fine as long as
Nadim asks, "Seymour, I know you love and follow Russia. But which picks do you think would be very nice for 2008?" Seymour's best ideas for Russia are
Market Vectors Russia
The team shares the trades they think have the most potential for profit.
- Macke favors Cypress Semiconductor (CY) - Get Report.
- Adami for the second day in a row picks Intel (INTC) - Get Report.
- Seymour recommends Tata Motors (TTM) - Get Report because the company is buying Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford.
- Najarian advises shorting Valero (VLO) - Get Report for a short term trade.
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