Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
My Takeaways and Observations
Originally published Dec. 5 at 4:50 p.m. EDT
"Well, they call you lady luck
But there is room for doubt
At times you have a very un-lady-like way
Of running out..."
-- Guys and Dolls, Luck Be A Lady (Frank Sinatra)
Trump will not likely Make Twitter Great Again.
Explaining my process for selecting and managing short-term trades (e.g., The "Trade of the Week" or "For Traders Only").
Hanson, real estate Bear--and that capital "B" is intentional.
Stocks up from the "get go" Monday--with little movement after the initial burst of speed.
Rs (Russell) over Ss (S&P Index) and Ns (Nasdaq).
Save my TLT (long common and short puts) -- I did little Monday.
- The U.S. dollar has weakened considerably.
- The price of crude oil was down by about two bits to $51.45.
- Gold fell by another $4 to $1,174.
- Ag commodities got a lift: wheat up $0.04, corn up $0.11, soybeans up $0.16, oats down $0.15.
- Lumber down $2.
- Bonds, the object of my affection today ("Trade of the Week"), reversed from early morning lows. After yields rose by more than 4 basis points on the 10-year, the close was relatively flat. TLT slipped $1.20 from Friday's close, ending the day slightly higher. Bravo!
- Municipal bonds sold off. But closed-end muni-bond funds got a lift (e.g., Eaton Vance Municipal Incm 2028 Term (ETX) and Blackrock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust (BBN) )--hard to explain why, though!
- The 2s/10s spread dropped by two basis points to 127 basis points.
- Banks, stated simply, are continuing to be the "world's fair" -- regardless of what rates do. Short Bank of America (BAC) , Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) (all small).
- Brokerages bullish -- led by Goldman Sachs (GS) (on a late HSBC (HSBC) buy upgrade Monday, seriously??!!!).
- But insurance lagged, though my long Hartford Financial (HIG) was modestly higher.
- Auto stocks stalled. I am still small short General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) .
- Retail was stronger--with upside leadership from Nordstrom (JWN) , Best Buy (BBY) , Foot Locker (FL) , Nike (NKE) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) . JC Penney (JCP) looked like it was going to eclipse $10/share but fizzled out.
- Ag equipment weakened, though ag commodities rallied.
- Old tech was mixed--though Microsoft (MSFT) is a leader and short Cisco (CSCO) up 1%.
- Energy stocks flatlined.
- Consumer non-durables were stronger, but my long Campbell Soup (CPB) didn't follow. Coca-Cola (KO) modestly higher, I halved that short recently.
- Biotech was disappointing with Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Celgene (CELG) lagging. But speculative biotech screamed higher. (Sage (SAGE) , Intrexon (XON) , Ziopharm Oncology (ZIOP) , FibroGen (FGEN) , etc.).
- REITS continue to rally off of lows. The iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (IYR) is still on my Best Ideas List (short)--it's been a big winner.
- (T)FANG was strong though Netflix (NFLX) lower on a story that Hedgeye will diss it in a conference call tomorrow. Google (GOOGL) , Amazon (AMZN) , Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA) up up and away.
- In individual stocks, fertilizers picked up a good bid. (Monsanto (MON) and Potash Company of Saskatchewan (POT) ). DuPont (DD) , which I sold half last week, struggled a bit today. Still on my Best Ideas List, though. Disney (DIS) higher on an upgrade while negative research comments (on China) hit Apple (AAPL) (small). Starbucks (SBUX) rallied some after last week' Schulz-induced weakness. I reduced to small short on that news.
Here are some value-added contributions on our site today:
1 Jim "El Capitan" Cramer's article on three industries that benefit from a Trump administration is strong.
2. Sham Gad "And the Pharaohs" on how to manage this portfolio. Uno, dos... Wooly bully!
3. Daniel "Oil Vey" Dicker goes yard on oil.
4. Rev Shark (has Adelaide's Lament) (see quote at opening of "Takeaways") 'cause he is trading a market that has a cold.
5. Lenore Williams on the Italian vote--and the market's response.
Long HIG large, CPB large, JCP large, SDS large, TLT small, DD small
Short AAPL large, BAC small, C small, JPM small, IYR small, KO small, CAT small, DIS small, IWM small, GM small, F small, SBUX small
Position: See above.
For Traders Only
Originally published Dec. 5 at 11:01 a.m. EDT
Over the last four decades I have made my "investment bones" chiefly through hard-hitting analysis and fundamental long-term investing. Depending on my market view (bull market, bear market, range-bound market), I supplement my longer-term investments (long and short) with trading rentals. When done well it produces what I like to call the "cash register effect" -- small trading gains that accumulate over time.
At Real Money Pro we have investors and traders with differing risk appetites and time frames. Contributors such as Jim "El Capitan" Cramer, RevShark, Divine Ms. M, Tim "Not Judy or Phil" Collins and myself serve and write for those various types of investors and traders.
At times being servants to many dissimilar masters can be problematic!
My "Best Ideas List" is the place to go for my longer-term investment ideas, measured in years, not days, weeks or even months. Some of these ideas, such as Caterpillar (CAT) , have been on the list for more than two years.
Today I am establishing a new feature, "Traders Only," for those with a one- to three-day trading outlook.
My first idea is selling (naked) the December iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) $120 puts at $1.90.
My Trade of the Week--long TLT--explains my trading rationale.
Position: Long TLT small; short TLT puts.
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long AAPL, SBUX, FB, GOOGL, C and CSCO.
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.