NEW YORK (ETF Expert) -- One of the most prominent names in perma-bear predicting, Nouriel Roubini, just advised that you buy stocks for a period of about two years. At that time, the professor expects a global economic depression to rock the world markets.
There's a great deal of irony in hearing "Dr. Doom" discuss riding a stock wave higher through 2014. For one thing, his revelation is coming to light at all-time record highs for U.S. equities. And he recommends
allocating cash to the broader market at the start of May?
Secondly, Roubini should be more famous for his inaccurate calls than the one that the media claim that he got right. According to many writers, Roubini predicted the 2008 collapse. Yet, his bearish prognostications occurred throughout the 2004-2007 period in which holding cash or short-selling assets would have harmed one's portfolio.
Perhaps more devastating, a follower of Roubini would have suffered mightily in the four-plus years since March of 2009. Now "Dr. Doom" essentially acknowledges (albeit inadvertently) that the central banks can inflate assets better than he can predict their price direction?
Roubini may deserve his guru status for his famous 2008 "call." Then again, he was three to four years early on the reaction of market-based securities to the real estate-based recession.
If market-based investments are beaten to a pulp in March of 2015, as he now contends, it will constitute circumstances where Roubini would be six years premature. Sadly, the media would certainly trot the well-educated economist out for an encore.
In essence, the media are at fault for propping up personalities. The public has a need for heroes and the media fill the void. However, the truth about what the markets may or may not do is far less stimulating; that is, nobody has any idea what will occur or when it will happen.
It follows that an investor needs to look for opportunity where reasonable assumptions fuel well-reasoned expectations of gain. Simultaneously, he/she must
for avoiding the bulk of a disastrous turn of events. With or without Nouriel Roubini, the future always has a period of reckoning.
Looked at another way, is the professor incorrect when he asserts that high-yield bonds are dramatically overpriced? Not if one looks at high-yield bonds in a vacuum. On the surface, 5% to 6% for "junk" is unattractive, but they may not be unattractive when 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield a paltry 1.65%; the spread of 350-400 basis points is in line with historical spreads.
As long as Treasury yields remain depressed, I might still use
Pimco 0-5 Year High Yield
SPDR Short-Term High Yield
. After all, I am always prepared
if technical and fundamental trends shift.
Nor is Roubini incorrect to say that global growth concerns should have an adverse impact on equities and their lofty valuations. Yet, the reality remains -- the central banks have been successful at pushing real estate and market-based risk assets higher.
"Dr. Doom" should have recognized the trend about four years sooner.
I may continue dollar-cost averaging into income ETFs like HYS,
Market Vectors Preferred excl Financials
PowerShares Senior Loan
. However, with "Professor Perma-Bear" effectively issuing a "buy signal" on equities, I am even more convinced that extra cash should wait for a legitimate pullback in stock ETFs.
Do I have a "wish list?" Certainly. If a healthy correction comes to fruition and a dose of fear grips the markets, I would look to dividend standouts including
Vanguard Dividend Growth
I would also be intrigued by non-cyclical-heavy investments including
WisdomTree Equity Income
iShares High Dividend Equity
Market Vectors Retail
PowerShares DJ Pharmaceuticals
This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a website that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial and/or its clients may hold positions in ETFs, mutual funds and investment assets mentioned. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert website. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships. You may review additional ETF Expert at the site.
Gary Gordon reads:
On Twitter, Gary Gordon follows: