Investors are bound-up waiting for the unemployment report Friday and Alcoa's earnings report which was just announced earnings that appeared to beat consensus estimates by a penny. Also, important chip company Micron Technology reported earnings that missed estimates. Intraday there was a reversal for white hot commodity markets (metals and energy) with some stability in the dollar. In fact, gold and silver were pressing fresh highs early they reversed course. Stops started got hit as many traders had been advised to put stops at the prior day's low which was taken out. We'll see how that works out.
Nonfarm payrolls are estimated to be down by a modest 8K with consensus estimates ranging from -75K to +25K.
There's plenty of tension in markets as currency wars rage, the
reflects the anxiety, and volume in markets still remains light. Breadth was negative overall.
Continue to U.S. Sectors, Stocks & Bonds
Continue to Currency & Commodity Markets
Continue to Overseas Markets & ETFs
is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
On little volume, markets managed to hold their own in the face of earnings from Alcoa and Friday's unemployment report. The markets have an artificial feel to them but this doesn't get noted on your monthly brokerage statement. The artificiality is caused by the high level of High Frequency Trading (HFT) operations that may amount to as much as two-thirds of volume. This is another reason to overweight markets overseas where less of this is prevalent.
And, as I live and breathe, Micron (MU) did miss estimates and is down slightly after hours. Alcoa beat and the stock is higher by about 2.5%.
All this action can be mitigated or enhanced with the unemployment report Friday.
Let's see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on
and become a fan of ETF Digest on
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, TNA, QQQQ, QLD, UDN, FXA, FXE, BZF, GLD, SLV, AGQ, DBC, DIG, DBB, BDD, DBA, EFA, EEM, EWJ, EWC, EWA, EWG, EWD, EZA, BRAQ, EWS, EPI, FXI and XPP.
The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of
, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here: