Bulls were cruising along minding their business when "BAM!" the rug was pulled out from under them. Why is this? The culprit has been light volume coupled with extended markets (commodities primarily) that a major player like
can and did exploit.
It wasn't helpful that
earnings report was sold hard and that Japan's nuclear plant catastrophe now carries a "Chernobyl" classification. Globally, things aren't calming as unrest continues throughout MENA
Middle East and North Africa.
Important stock and commodity sectors sold-off while bonds reversed course and rallied. Nevertheless, the dollar made a new 52-week low which is bullish for commodity markets ultimately if not Tuesday. The negative from skyrocketing oil prices was relieved briefly Tuesday. As a consequence, retail related sectors (XRT) relative performance was better.
There wasn't any Fed POMO Tuesday, but the Fed released its
for the next month which is lower than expected.
As is typical during sell-offs, volume increased as stops were hit. Breadth per the WSJ was quite negative putting close to short-term oversold.
You can follow our pithy comments on
and join the conversation on
Continue to U.S. Sectors, Stocks & Bonds
Continue to Currency & Commodity Markets
The analysis below is from our colleague trader, Scott Pluschau:
The dollar broke down from a consolidation area back in the middle of January. The dollar on below average volume made one pullback to the prior support area which became strong resistance in the middle of February. Since then we have formed a multipoint down sloping trend line with one attempt to breakout that was rejected. It would be wise to not try and time a bottom as it made a 52 week low today. Wait at least until this trendline is broken to the upside through the trendline I've drawn below.
Continue to Overseas Sectors & ETFs
is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
It's really hard to comment on markets when dealing with a light volume melt-up and then a bear raid occasioned by a large firm like GS. This has been the deal.
Wednesday is Retail Sales, Fed Beige Book and importantly, Crude Inventories.
JP Morgan Chase
will be the featured earnings report.
Let's see what happens.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: PST, DJP, GLD, SLV, USL, FCG, XME, GAZ, UCO, EEM, EDC, VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, EWU, BWD, GXG, THD, AFK, BRAQ, CHIQ, TUR, & VNM
The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.
Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of
, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here: