It is Thanksgiving time, and we at The FRED Report (
) wish all of our readers here at
a safe and profitable holiday season! And, what could be more appropriate than a little analysis of Thanksgiving seasonality and the current market!
We decided to take a quick look at the last two weeks of November's trading in the SPY to see what the market has done over the last few years, and the results are interesting. For much of the 1980s and 1990s, the market was up the last two weeks of November, but this changed in the 2000s. However, in fairness, the market also changed form a rip-roaring bull market to a sideways to down market, and November followed the trend there as well. In fact, while there may be a seasonal bias to markets, one lesson learned in the 25+ years I have been a market analyst is that one must always look at the indicators and follow THEM rather than one's emotions and opinions.
Let's take a look at the stock market. We will use the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Trust) as our proxy for the stock indices. We show two types of indicators on the charts we use at The FRED Report. The first is moving averages, which are trend analysis indicators. The second is the stochastic oscillator (represented by the two lines below the price chart). For more information on these, please visit our website at
We note that the stochastic has been close to 80 or above since last September, a sign of strength but also an indication of overbought. We have been looking for the market to have a sharp correction to move the stochastic back down to the 20 area, to relieve the overbought -- and this movement has been under way over the last few trading sessions. This suggests that the market can resume its upward trend into the end of the year, and possibly into the end of the week. Further confirmation of this is that the MDY (SPDR Mid-cap Series Trust) has been stronger (note the higher readings on the stochastic, a sign of relative strength). Mid-caps have been leading this rally since the lows in 2009, and it looks like this is reasserting itself. Further confirmation of this is that the moving averages on MDY have been stronger than SPY.
In short, we would expect this holiday week to close up notwithstanding an escalation of the problems in the Korean Peninsula. The trend of the year has been up, and the indicators suggest a market that can resolve its oversold condition. However, remember that seasonal tendencies are just that -- tendencies -- and watch how stocks react to the major trend at all times.