Recent end-of-day price drops are characteristic of "event risk" markets especially when the "event" is still in play. There's little to add to the obvious. It's "still game on" for budget brinksmanship and the outcome will most likely remain cloudy through Sunday and even Monday for all anyone knows. Clearly the tone is set and positions seem hardening. In the end, some will blink and a deal will be struck let's hope. Then we'll have our relief rally but the reality of crummy economic data shows a weakening economy that won't help "future" earnings potentially.
There isn't much good news when buying power is wasted such as today. Tech seemed to do best but then it did the worst just Wednesday.
Earnings continue to come in with a focus on Exxon Mobil (XOM) as some commentators discuss how Apple's (AAPL) market cap is catching-up with it. That was the chatter previously with Microsoft (MSFT) and then Walmart (WMT) but those failed to overtake the big bad energy company.
Jobless Claims improved and dropped under 400K for the first time in months. Much was due to the end of the Minnesota government shutdown. The previous week's figures were revised higher so expect more revisions next week. The ongoing moving average remains quite negative. Pending Home Sales beat consensus rising 2.4%.
Gold, the Swiss Franc and the yen remain the insurance of choice against poor Washington DC decisions. This could quickly change with a deal so be careful.
But the focus remains the debt ceiling and the debate surrounding it. This makes this post a short one.
Volume was still higher than recent averages while breadth per the WSJ was still negative. One look at the NYMO at the end of this post will show you how short-term oversold we are.
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is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
Yes, the post is short and deliberately so since with an "event risk" situation anything can happen with uncertainties so high.
Friday does bring more earnings and economic data with GDP, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment.
Maybe Tony Montana has it the right way: "Say hello to my little friend!
Let's see what happens.
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