One pundit wondered Tuesday if POMO ends in June will the economy be able to stand on its own. The better question might be can the stock market stand on its own? But, that issue is too far down the road thinking since today the barkeep keeps serving his
So markets continued to rally due supposedly more M&A featuring
buy of Skype and better growth data from China. Ignored was the steep 2.2% rise in import prices which will be passed on to consumers to mark the inflation supposedly we don't have.
Commodities resumed their rise despite last week's higher margin induced slaughter. Tuesday exchanges increased margins on energy and later on corn. This speculation must be contained is the political thinking. You must wonder who many insiders are on the other side of these trades.
We're starting to see the first signs of bodies floating to the surface from last week's commodity bashing as
in energy markets. Remember, some insiders also clear trades and have no problem trading against their own customers.
Meanwhile, European investors are pretending some of their members' problems will get papered over (literally) causing markets to rally.
Volume was once again quite light which makes it easy for HFTs to pump prices. Breadth was quite positive again per the WSJ after three rally days.
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is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
The Fed is still propping up markets. They'll continue to do so for another month. The only question is how far in advance will some bulls make their exit?
And, like after a bad storm, commodity investors have returned to the wreckage to take markets higher again. The damage done in this bear raid by the exchanges did more to hurt their credibility than to enhance orderly and fair markets. No wonder commodity markets suffer from a poor image.
Thursday's Jobless Claims seem more important to me than previously given the disconnect between the previous report and Friday's NFP.
Let's see what happens.
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