Markets Stall Waiting for Data: Dave's Daily
Absent much economic data and no daily dose of POMO from Uncle Sugar, markets got the blahs. Sure, there's plenty of M&A activity going on but there's also some heavy economic data on tap throughout this week. I don't know what the weather's like in your neck of the woods but its rainy Monday in New England today.
Bulls and the financial media are waiting for all that cash on the sidelines to come into markets but I'm told U.S. corporations have $1 trillion in cash parked offshore. They can't bring this in unless they pay heavy corporate taxes which they won't do based on high current tax rates. Therefore, it won't be coming to an exchange near you.
The market barely had a pulse today so when profit-taking hit the tape just about the time for the programs to leave the station, down we went. Volume was holiday light while breadth reversed Friday's 90/10 gain.
SPY
: Markets were well -- boring.
MDY & IWM
: Same story here as traders are fatigued.
QQQQ & AAPL
: It's hard to find much to say on a day like this.
Continue to U.S. Sectors, Stocks & Bonds
XLB
: Materials show little reaction to anything.
XLF & KBE
: The banks are struggling even as they get lubed by POMO.
XLY
: Slow day and short post.
XLI
: I could've just as easily said, "tastes like chicken."
IYR
: Many REITs are engaged in refinancing in both secondary and debt offerings.
IYT
: Southwest finds a way to fly southeast.
XLU
: Not much interest in utilities one way or another.
XLV
: Healthcare stocks fall right back to the new support level after just establishing it.
IEF, TLT & TIP
: The magical mystery tour continues.
Continue to Currency & Commodity Markets
$USD/DXY
: Argentina was another country buying dollars to cheapen their peso. That brings them in line with Peru, Brazil, Japan, and Switzerland. It's another form of a trade war.
FXE, FXF & FXY
: The Fed green lights a weak dollar and trading partners don't like it one bit.
GLD & SLV
: Options expiration this day creates some tentativeness.
DBC
: Lots of inconsistencies within typical commodity tracking indexes.
$WTIC, XLE & FCG
: Energy markets just stuck overall.
DBB & JJC
: Every market lacks conviction Monday.
DBA
: Ag markets rally with softs but held back by grains.
MOO
: Ag stocks have had a good rally but everything on Monday was in a funk.
Continue to Overseas Markets & ETFs
EFA
: Another market in a Monday funk.
EEM
: EMs are still strong based on previously rising commodity markets and better economic growth.
EWJ
: Fighting the rising yen restricting exports.
EWY
: South Korea still is rising even with Samsung reporting weakness and rumors (always present) of war with North Korea.
ILF & ECH
: Latin American markets still stronger than most.
IDX
: Indonesian markets rally strongly over the past year with only one break in May.
EWA
: Aussie market continues with many other overseas markets to create better opportunities than in the U.S.
TUR
: Turkish markets continue to rally blowing away developed markets.
EWZ
: Brazilian markets still rally with most commodities and economic growth.
EPI
: India markets make another push higher.
FXI
: Shanghai markets rally about 1.5% Monday but U.S. stocks don't follow suit.
The
NYMO
is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
The
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
The
VIX
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
A pretty frustrating and boring Monday that's for sure. We won't get much in the way of economic data until Thursday and Friday. You might expect this boring machine driven light volume affair to continue until then.
There's little to add to this kind of day.
Let's see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on
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Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: XLI, QQQQ, MDY, IYR, XLU, MOO, GLD, SLV, AGQ, DBC, DYY, DBB, BDD, EEM, EDC, ILF, TUR, EWY, ECH, IDX, EWZ and FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of
Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund, A DIY Strategy for Private Wealth Management
, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here:
Dave Fry.
