Most markets are struggling to find direction with a great amount of churn. It does seem as trend exhaustion is taking place which is confirmed by often reliable "monthly" DeMark sequential 9 counts.
Cross currents are plentiful.
just a few weeks ago told clients to sell their commodity holdings and today told them to buy them back. One wonders given their track record how much they accumulated in their own account to sell clients and the public now.
is in the process of launching a secondary issue (now priced at $29) to the public. Before the deal was finalized the company
stating two government watchdogs hadn't reviewed its insurance reserves. Corporate governance is something new to the company evidently and perhaps even lost on AIG's underwriters.
And speaking of new issues
, the Russian search engine, opened at $35 after being priced at $25 and closed the day at $38.84--so that game (Russian IPO Roulette?) continues.
, much in the news, has been
by the LME (London Metals Exchange) as per this posting. Coincidentally, JPM also released a note cutting its GDP data forecast for the second quarter to 2.5% from 3%.
Taken together these are the types of news items we read about after bear markets begin.
Not to be left out or stopped, the Fed was still busy chucking freshly minted cash to Primary Dealers with
. (This was about the same amount as taxpayers recouped from the AIG sale--PONZI anyone?)
Economic reports featured New Home Sales which were 7% higher; but, isn't this the season to buy homes generally?
Volume was on the light side and breadth per the WSJ was once again negative. We're now at least short-term oversold.
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is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
With earnings news ending, most attention shifts to commodity markets combined with economic data. Geopolitical events, economic woes from Europe and currency also are center stage.
Durable Goods Orders will be front and center Wednesday along with Crude Inventory Data.
Markets are getting oversold so we could get a little bounce at any time. But, for me, the trend is lower and DeMark and other indicators suggest markets are either rolling over or just exhausted. There's little else to comment about.
Let's see what happens.
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