This is "the short-term memory market" and may be a suitable alternative headline. But, HFTs (High Frequency Traders) have programmed their HAL 9000s to search for terms like "Greece" and "approved" to launch buy programs. And, yes, there was some news regarding both items late in the trading day. Nevertheless, there will be more votes ahead for any deal which will come with accompanied tension.
Forgotten was early in the day news that continues to be poor. There was weak economic data from China and Europe overnight which also weighed on markets in the U.S. Jobless Claims missed and came in higher while Home Sales were still lower. News from White House negotiations over the budget disappointed as Congressman Cantor walked out of talks wanting the president to come to the table.
Wednesday's Fed report showed Fed Chief Bernanke mystified over the lack of positive results from his policies. If he isn't confident, why should we be? In another coordinated interventionist action, the U.S. ordered 30M barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Reserve released to supposedly fix supply shortages from the Libyan oil facilities we're bombing. But, really, it's a political move and no, you can't make this stuff up.
Given short-term memories the machines only respond to the latest news and not the totality of bad news. Therefore, markets rallied sharply off their lows with the NASDAQ closing green on the day while the DJIA made up over 150 points to close down .50%. Color the markets messy.
After the close both
missed badly on their reports and both stocks were sold hard.
Volume was very heavy especially on the last hour short-squeeze ramp on news from Europe. Breadth per the WSJ was still mixed to negative.
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is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
Important economic news Friday comes our way courtesy of Durable Goods Orders (1% consensus) and GDP (1.9% consensus).
Next week marks the end of the quarter. Bulls will be doing their best to mark prices higher for fun and profit (fees). The news hasn't been that accommodating to them but the machines are doing most of the trading now. Individuals are becoming more and more spectators than players judging by fund redemptions.
Let's see what happens.
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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
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