This story was written prior to the announcement from the European Union that it had put together a $1 trillion package to contain Europe's spreading debt crisis.
NEW YORK (
) -- Investors will be closely watching a euro ETF as the markets once again turn their attention to the debt crisis in Greece and other parts of Europe.
A euro ETF has been included in the ETFs to watch for many weeks this year and it makes the list once again.
Last week started with a deal to aid Greece on Sunday and that bought the global financial markets one day of rising prices. Investors then dumped the euro in the next three days, sending it tumbling to major support levels around $1.25 before it stabilized on Friday, after the German parliament approved the bailout for Greece. Over those three days, EUO gained more than 8% as the euro tumbled, taking the world's financial markets with it.
This week will be a major test for the euro. It needs to hold the $1.25 level, and a flat or slightly down week would be very good for the continent and the currency. With Portugal, Spain and other European nations mentioned along with Greece now, the governments of Europe are reaching the end of their rope.
PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China
splits 10 for 1 this week, and accounts for more than 5% of PGJ. BIDU has helped PGJ beat
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25
in 2010, thanks to its more-than-60% rally.
China has been a source of uneasiness in global markets for much of the year. Chinese monetary policy has been tightening for months now, and the Chinese government is stepping up efforts to slow the property market.
China ETFs led the global decline in January. China ETFs got back to their January highs in April before it started falling. They have lost more than 10% of their value since early April (a period in which PGJ leads again, thanks in part to Baidu). The mainland Shanghai composite index of A-shares lost 15% in the three weeks since April 15, and fell more than 4% on Thursday of last week --ahead of the U.S. and European markets.
While Baidu may help PGJ this week, China ETFs did not close below their February lows last week and any of them are good candidates for rebounds this week.
SPDR S&P Retail
are leading the retail earnings pack with reports this week, followed by a deluge next week.
It's been almost straight down for XRT since April 26 and the fund has lost about 10%. Retail sales figures for April were below estimates and that news came on the same day as the market's plunged last week, which caused several retailers to sell off heavily. Bullish investors should pick up shares ahead of this two-week earnings blitz. Estimates have been rising for these firms and the bad news is known.
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
Gold has been outperforming gold miners since the end of April, but gold miners have been outperforming since February and this larger trend appears to be in force. The recent outperformance by gold is a counter-trend move, and miners will reassert leadership.
Gold miners have been hurt relative to gold by the overall environment for equities in the past couple of weeks, but they've still performed well relative to stocks. For instance, GDX is outperforming
SPDR S&P 500
by more than 10% in the past three weeks.
On the other hand, gold is one good day away from hitting a new all-time high, but the miners are still more than 10% away from their all-time high that was set when gold was just over $1000 in March 2008.
Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF
report this week.
TAN blew right through long-term support levels that had been successfully tested multiple times since May of 2009. JASO has seen its estimates rise in the past few weeks, but CSIQ and SPWRA have seen their estimates cut. Their charts are different as well, with JASO above its 50-day moving average and in an uptrend. CSIQ has fallen about 50% this year, while SPWRA has fallen about 40% to a new all-time low.
-- Written by Don Dion in Williamstown, Mass.
At the time of publication, Dion Money Management is long Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF.
Don Dion is president and founder of
, a fee-based investment advisory firm to affluent individuals, families and nonprofit organizations, where he is responsible for setting investment policy, creating custom portfolios and overseeing the performance of client accounts. Founded in 1996 and based in Williamstown, Mass., Dion Money Management manages assets for clients in 49 states and 11 countries. Dion is a licensed attorney in Massachusetts and Maine and has more than 25 years' experience working in the financial markets, having founded and run two publicly traded companies before establishing Dion Money Management.
Dion also is publisher of the Fidelity Independent Adviser family of newsletters, which provides to a broad range of investors his commentary on the financial markets, with a specific emphasis on mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. With more than 100,000 subscribers in the U.S. and 29 other countries, Fidelity Independent Adviser publishes six monthly newsletters and three weekly newsletters. Its flagship publication, Fidelity Independent Adviser, has been published monthly for 11 years and reaches 40,000 subscribers.