The U.S. dollar's eight-week rally has put a chill on commodity prices, sending them down as quickly as they rose. The benchmark Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index has dropped 21.6% since its July 3 high.
governors are leaning toward raising short-term interest rates, a move bullish for the greenback, to fight inflation. As a result, some of the most actively traded commodity exchange traded funds may extend their bearish course.
Here are five exchange-traded funds and notes that should not be in your portfolio right now.
The first two are indexed to the S&P GSCI Total Return Index. The
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Index Trust
iPath S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN
track a diversified basket of commodities. The index is weighted to 76.9% energy, 11.6% agriculture, 6.3% industrial metals, 3.3% livestock and 1.9% precious metals.
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN
follows a more balanced portfolio of 35% energy, 30% agriculture, 18% industrial metals, 9% precious metals and 8% livestock. Still, it has produced similar losses.
The last two to avoid focus exclusively on agricultural commodities.
ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index - Agriculture Total Return
is based on commodity futures contracts of the underlying index of 20 globally consumed crops, the largest being wheat, corn, cotton and soybeans.
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
is indexed to the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index-Optimum Yield Agriculture Excess Return Index.
If you decide not only to rid these exchange traded securities from your portfolio, but also to sell them short, you may be able to ride this near-term trend longer.
But as with any trading strategy, you can lose money, so place stop-loss orders to gain protection from sudden moves against your positions.
For an explanation of our ratings,
Kevin Baker became the senior financial analyst for TSC Ratings upon the August 2006 acquisition of Weiss Ratings by TheStreet.com, covering mutual funds. He joined the Weiss Group in 1997 as a banking and brokerage analyst. In 1999, he created the Weiss Group's first ratings to gauge the level of risk in U.S. equities. Baker received a B.S. degree in management from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and an M.B.A. with a finance specialization from Nova Southeastern University.