When you discover the Fed buying some 30-year Treasury bonds from the last poorly received auction in today's
operation, that's the essence of a shell game.
Friday was options expiration but volume was surprisingly weak given the week's volatility. That made it easy for traders in the options pits to hunt down strike prices distorting conditions overall. This options related activity was part of that late day "stick save."
Markets are caught between good earnings (Ann Taylor and Mentor Graphics) and M&A (KKR & Del Monte Foods) but worried about inflation issues from China and EU troubles.
Dell announced earnings that beat estimates because they were able to reduce PC "component prices." Now you'll understand why you're at tech support when component systems fail. Don't press those keys indelicately now. Away from that Salesforce.com soared 16% after reporting slightly better than expected earnings but also providing good guidance.
If you like thrill rides this week provided all you could handle given Tuesday's big high volume collapse and Thursday's light volume rally. In the end, most equity markets recorded very small gains on the week.
Volume was almost holiday light while breadth was mildly positive.
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is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
What a wild week which came to nothing in the end despite the volatility. There are more mixed messages than you can put on a "positive vs negative" list. And if you think I know what's going to happen next you'd have to be smoking something. (Hmm, or maybe I should, then get a vision and -- never mind.) The only conclusion one can divine now is that markets were overbought; we got our obligatory DeMark weekly 9s; there was an expected reaction; and now counter move higher.
Earnings season, save for perhaps HPQ, are behind us. Among other economic indicators we get Fed minutes on the 23
which should garner some attention. Next week is a shortened holiday affair. Wednesday and Friday should feature light trading and many airport pat-downs.
Let's see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on
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Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: SPY, MDY, IWM, TZA, QQQQ, XLI, IYR, TBF, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBA, EFA, EEM, EWA, EWJ, EWY, EWC, EWZ, RSX, EPI & FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
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