The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- Here at
, we made a couple of forecasts at the beginning of 2011. We called this our "Fred's Fab Four," and
. Several of these look ready to start to occur.
The first forecast was that the second half of 2011 would be stronger than the first, and we have been suggesting we would have a summer rally starting in the June/July timeframe. Recent market action is starting to suggest this. Stocks are up and bonds are down from their highs.
The second part of this forecast was that commodities would enjoy a seasonal rally this summer. Until recently, the setup for commodities has been lacking, but this may be falling into line as well.
To understand why this is, we show a little history, and discuss some technical theory. When silver declined precipitously in May of this year, we mentioned that the momentum configuration suggested a lower closing low in price (not necessarily a new price low) was needed to complete the pattern. This often takes some time to develop. The example we used was the stock crash in October of 1987, and we noted that the closing low of the move occurred in December and
October. We show that chart below:
We note that, this week, silver
has completed this pattern, and we show the chart of SLV below. Notice that the time it took these moves to mature is similar - mid-October to mid-December in the case of stocks, and early May to late June in the case of the SLV.
In our recent Sector Review, we moved energy to an overweight status with the expectation that it would outperform this summer, and possibly through the end of the year. We note that energy
have been among the strongest sectors as the market rallied this past week. Please email us if you would like to see a copy of that report.
We continue to believe energy will perform well this summer - stocks we have recommended are below:
Should the market rally into August (and possibly longer), we believe these stocks will continue to lead, in spite of signs the government is trying to slow the rise of oil prices. Should this continue, these stocks and ETFs should outperform.
Fred Meissner is founder and publisher of
. Fred is a CMT and past President of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). He recently left Merrill Lynch's Market Analysis Department and Sector Strategy Department to form The Fred Report.�A detailed bio is here: