There is very little in the way of equity market action as volume was beneath pathetic. Most were waiting for Alcoa's earnings which were released shortly after the bell. They beat 12 cent estimates by a penny. I don't know if that's something to get really excited about or not. As of this writing the data is being sliced and diced. All one can say now is "a penny saved is a penny earned." Just remember, analysts had been cutting estimates the past few weeks and got it low enough so the company could beat.
In the meantime, Novellus earnings and revenue (66 cents & $321M) also beat analyst estimates (60 cents & $312M). CSX Corp. also beat estimates of 97 cents coming in at $1.07. So, strike up the band!
Of perhaps more interest to you is the broadcast we did with Business Monitor International (London) regarding emerging markets, commodities and their global market overview
. And, best of all it's free.
Back on the big board not much happened overall. Volume was low and breadth was quite negative for a headline "up" day.
The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Major U.S. Markets
It's a hard market to understand fundamentally and technically. On the one hand is the double-dip scenario which two weeks ago seemed likely. This reversed on light volume last week as economic data was nonexistent and investors pumped-up earnings expectations.
MDY & IWM:
You see this often on a sketchy trading day where the further away from the machines you go the less well these markets do.
Now this is just a really flat day frankly and not much to comment on.
Continue to U.S. Market Sectors, Selected Stocks & Bonds
SMH, NVLS & AAPL
: Some sector has to win today and why not semis? I tossed Apple into the mix just since current iPhone problems are amusing if not important.
XLF, AON & C:
The good, the bad and the boring.
XLB & AA:
A huge rally last week in anticipation of a good report from AA? It's pretty comical since, as we stated previously, earnings were being cut these past few weeks and now they beat by a touch. The company outlook was good and perhaps that will justify last week's rally since there can't be anything else.
XLY & XRT:
Consumer Discretionary is often asserted to provide a better read on Chucky the Consumer but XRT is really where it's at in that regard.
IYT, CSX & $BDI:
IYT is just hugging resistance/support line for now. CSX beat and moved somewhat higher in after hours trading. The Baltic Dry Index is falling sharply due to low iron ore shipping tonnage. The latter is a bad sign for base metals and materials.
IEF & TLT:
Weekly Treasury auctions are just something you'll have to get used to. What passes for
just downgraded U.S. debt
Continue to Currency & Commodity Markets
$USD/DXY & FXE:
A little lift for Bucky today as some investors rethink the validity of eurozone "stress tests".
Euro and gold both weaken. We're living in strange times with the historic relationship.
The long trading range continues.
$WTIC/CRUDE OIL, BP & XLE:
For BP all the talk is about the "super nova theory" that the sum of the parts is greater than the whole notwithstanding liabilities from the other hole. Perhaps they'll just split the company into tiny pieces giving lawyers more disparate parts to sue.
Continue to Overseas & Emerging Markets
Just a boring day all things considered.
Not much doing here today either.
The BRICs are following the herd--the higher the beta the bigger the drop today.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
A late start for the Fryguy Monday means an early exit.
Tuesday after the close we'll get YUM Brands and INTC to watch. With volume this light, anything can happen going forward. We may already be in the doldrums of summer as we would be in mid-to-late August.
Analysts don't seem too reliable lately. Every company seems to routinely beat lowered estimates. That may be the responsibility of the companies involved but it's frustrating to see how this data is manipulated.
Let's see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on
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Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD & ULE
The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
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