The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- At the FRED Report (
), we have had questions about sectors and our current weightings over the last few days. Our sector allocation has been different from that of most strategists, in that
we are overweight Consumer Staples and equal weight Technology
. One reason for this is that Tech has been an overweight for 8 out of the ten strategists surveyed by
in its last article on the subject. The other reason is that the Sector ETFs for Staples have been outperforming tech over the last few months.
We show monthly charts of the XLP, XLK and IYW below. Notice how the XLP has outperformed Tech, and is within pennies of its all time high of 30.29, set in 2007, as of this writing. The XLK is still 9% or so below its all time high, but we note that there are several telecom companies in this ETF, and these (ATT and Verizon) have underperformed Tech. At the FRED Report, we use IYW as our primary Tech ETF as it is pure tech, with no telecom thrown in. IYW has done better, but is still lagging, with one monthly close above the 2007 high only.
Another reason we like the Staples sector is that we believe foreign cash will come into our market, and when it does, this generally benefits staples-like stocks first. We show some stock charts below. The last reason is Staples is a defensive sector, and our work suggests the market is overextended enough to have a correction into May. We show some attractive stocks in the Staples sector, below.
These three stocks are all attractive patterns, pausing within uptrends in most cases. In addition, these names have good defensive characteristics should the market have a short-term correction and investors may hide out in these names during any turbulence which we believe is a distinct possibility between now and May.
Fred Meissner is founder and publisher of
. Fred is a CMT and past President of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). He recently left Merrill Lynch's Market Analysis Department and Sector Strategy Department to form The Fred Report. A detailed bio is here: