Central Banks and Data Stoke Bulls: Dave's Daily
Jobless Claims (348Kvs 365K expected and prior 358K); Housing Starts (.699M vs .675M and prior .657M) & Building Permits (.676M vs .684M expected and prior .671M); and, Philly Fed (10.2 vs 9.5 expected and prior 7.3). These were all good reports.
Moody's like other rating ("ratting"?) agencies states it will lower ratings on 17 major banks from JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). It's hard to trust rating agencies given their habit of being late to the obvious. They're the most fee-conflicted organizations on the planet. Despite Moody's warnings all the mentioned bank stocks rallied powerfully.
General Motors (GM) earnings ($.39 vs $.42 expected) report falls short of expectations but the stock rallies over 8%, Nvidia (NVDA) reported results that missed and offered future guidance below expectations but the stock reversed heavy losses to close up over 1% on analysts' "hopes"; and, after the close results from Nordstrom (JWN) $1.11 vs $1.09 expected (stock lower late), NetApp (NTAP) reported earnings that much lower than a year ago but "after adjustments" matched estimates so naturally the stock rallied over 7%. Lastly, Applied Materials (AMAT) reported substantially lower earnings but beat expectations and the shares were 4% higher late.
We can't go a day without discussing the Greek situation now can we? European shares fell early as EU finance ministers didn't like Samara's postscript that "adjustments" to their agreement may be necessary. But later conditions reversed course
the ECB would exchange Greek bonds for new securities. Translated this means Greek junk sovereigns will now be the property of the central bank and they'll have to pretend they don't exist for a long time.
With this news stocks were able to shrug off eurozone worries and rally. The euro reversed course and rallied from a 1% loss to a .5% gain. Gold also climbed as did commodities (energy and agriculture) while bond prices fell.
Here's the bottom line--economic data is modestly better in the U.S. and global central banks are in full liquidity (money printing) mode--end of story.
Volume was higher and bulls are trying to pull sideline money into markets. Breadth per the WSJ was positive.
Oh hey, did you know I'm on
and
?
SPY - The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
IWM - The
iShares
Russell 2000 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. The index represents the approximately 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
QQQ -
PowerShares
Capital Management LLC is passionate about our goal of delivering the highest quality investment management available through one of the more benefit-rich investment vehicles ever created, the exchange-traded
fund. PowerShares
QQQ¿, formerly known as "QQQ" or the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock®", is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index®. The Fund will, under most circumstances, consists of all of stocks in the Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the
Nasdaq
Stock Market based on market capitalization. The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted annually.
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XLK - The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Technology Select Sector Index (ticker: IXT). Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
FDN
- The
First Trust Dow Jones Internet
IndexSM
Fund is an exchange-traded index fund. The investment objective of the fund is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield of the Dow Jones Internet
IndexSM
. For a stock to be included in the selection universe for the index, a company must generate at least 50% of its annual sales/revenues from the Internet.
SOXX - The iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks as represented by the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index ("the Index").
XLI - The Industrial Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Industrial Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
XRT - The SPDR® S&P® Retail ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before expenses, the total return performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry® Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
XLB - The Materials Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Materials Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
VNQ
-
Vanguard REIT ETF seeks to provide a high level of income and moderate long-term capital appreciation by tracking the performance of a benchmark index that measures the performance of publicly traded equity REITs.
KBE - The SPDR® S&P® Bank ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the S&P® Banks Select Industry Index (ticker: SPSIBK). Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
KRE - The SPDR® S&P® Regional Banking ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the S&P® Regional Banks Select Industry Index(ticker: SPSIRBK). Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
XLF - The Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Financial Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
IEF - The
iShares
Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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UUP - The
PowerShares
DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) is based on the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index¿ (DB Long USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish
Krona
and Swiss Franc.
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FXE -
CurrencyShares
Euro Trust is designed to track the price of the euro net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited
euros
.
FXA - CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust is designed to track the price of the Australian Dollar net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited Australian Dollars.
GLD - The objective of the SPDR® Gold Trust¿ is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses.
GDX - The Gold Miners ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE
Arca
Gold Miners Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide involved primarily in the mining for gold, representing a diversified blend of small-, mid- and large- capitalization stocks. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this sector.
SLV - The objective of the
iShares
Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the
iShares
Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the
iShares
Silver Trust at that time, less the
iShares
Silver Trust's expenses and liabilities.
JJC - The Dow Jones-UBS Copper
Subindex
Total
ReturnService
Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total
ReturnService
Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
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DJP - The
iPath
® Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total
ReturnService
Mark ETN is linked to the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total
ReturnService
Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The commodities represented in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total
Return Service
Mark are rebalanced annually; however, the weightings fluctuate between
rebalancings
due to changes in market prices.
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USO - The United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") is a domestic exchange traded security designed to track the movements of light, sweet crude oil ("West Texas Intermediate").
UGA - The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices.
IXC - The iShares S&P Global Energy Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of companies that Standard & Poor's deems part of the energy sector of the economy and important to global markets, as represented by the S&P Global Energy Sector Index. The index is a subset of the Standard & Poor's Global 1200 Index.
JJG - The Dow Jones-UBS Grains
Subindex
Total
ReturnService
Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total
ReturnService
Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the Index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The Index is currently composed of three futures contracts on grains traded on U.S. exchanges.
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EFA - The
iShares
MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australasian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.
EEM - The
iShares
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in emerging markets, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
EWJ - The
iShares
MSCI Japan Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Japanese market, as measured by the MSCI Japan Index.
EWC - The
iShares
MSCI Canada Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Canadian market, as measured by the MSCI Canada Index.
EWG - The
iShares
MSCI Germany Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the German market, as measured by the MSCI Germany Index.
EWH - The iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Hong Kong market, as measured by the MSCI Hong Kong Index.
EWY - The
iShares
MSCI South Korea Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the South Korean market, as measured by the MSCI Korea Index.
ILF - The iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of companies in the Mexican and South American equity markets as represented by the Standard & Poor's Latin America 40 Index.
EPI -
WisdomTree
India Earnings Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the
WisdomTree
India Earnings Index.
GXC - The SPDR® S&P® China ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the total return performance of the S&P China BMI Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
The
NYMO
is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
The
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
The
VIX
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
So Europe is "fixed" once again until it's broken again. But the ECB's Draghi has tipped his hand that the central bank will bailout Greece while and buy their bonds. Like the Fed the junk will remain hidden in their portfolio until we all forget about them being there. This action combined with better economic data in the U.S. and global central bank money printing has bulls pumped-up. Inflation will follow at some point but probably not until after the election.
Let's see what happens.
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The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of
Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund, A DIY Strategy for Private Wealth Management
, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here:
Dave Fry.
