Cat With Nine Lives: Dave's Daily
So far this week, the cat is running in place with spectacular declines and rebounds. The lift Thursday was due to the successful GM placement; ongoing better earnings; positive LEI and Philly Fed reports; better news (for now) regarding Ireland and ongoing short-term oversold conditions allowing for a short squeeze. Lost in the shuffle was continuing high Jobless Claims to which bulls are numb to.
It didn't hurt the Fed tossed in another $7.2 billion of
for Da Boyz to play with. Maybe some used the last few days of this to buy some GM--you know, play ball Boyz since you've nothing to lose. I wonder if former Obama Car Czar, Steven Rattner, had GM stock options to pay his
attorneys and fines
. He's been banned from the securities industry for two years but what about the auto industry? Maybe he could work for Wayne Huizenga selling cars.
The previous theme of higher commodity prices, a lower dollar and higher bond yields (the Fed will buy longer dated bonds soon), lost early in the week, now is at the forefront again. It's enough to give you whiplash.
I know they don't put volume data on your brokerage statement but it remains historically low on these melt-ups while heavy on selloffs. Is it just due to weak hands for those long and/or stops getting hit perhaps? Hard to know but we do know we're in the 27
th
straight week of equity mutual fund redemptions.
Nevertheless, volume was 40% below Tuesday's heavy selloff, while breadth was quite positive although perhaps missing a 90/10 day.
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The
NYMO
is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
The
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
The
VIX
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
Sometimes you just can't make this stuff up, yet there it is for all to see. One day, a "dead cat bounce" and the next, we rally mightily. As of Thursday anyway, we've gone everywhere and nowhere. Perhaps Friday might tell the tale, then again...quien sabe?
Earnings season has been good overall with most companies beating estimates. There are only a few more company earnings to dribble out. Dell beat estimates "excluding" non-recurring items -- there always seem to be those. Meanwhile, Foot Locker, Dress Barn, Salesforce.com and Marvell all beat estimates after the close.
A funny but quite true video has gone viral on the web explaining
. It's hilarious while maddening at the same time.
Let's see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on
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Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: SPY, MDY, IWM, TZA, QQQQ, XLI, TBF, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBA, MOO, EFA, EEM, EWA, EWJ, EWY, EZA, EWT, EWC, EWZ, RSX, EPI & FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of
Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund, A DIY Strategy for Private Wealth Management
, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here:
Dave Fry.
