The economic news from the unemployment report could not be worse and an old pattern was repeated -- higher volume on a selloff followed by an engineered "stick save" into the close. It used to be hard to make this stuff up, now it's becoming routine. As noted yesterday, bulls might like bad data since they'd expect another round of quantitative easing (QE2) from the Fed and a politically desperate administration. This means more liquidity baby and an opportunity to lift stocks to new highs. That's the thinking from bizzaro-land.
So we get another big intraday 150 point swing in the DJIA as the "2:15 PM Buy Program Express" hits the tape on time as volume starts to dry up. That's why the caution sign advises to stay away from the Program Trading Express.
Nevertheless, volume increased Friday with most of that coming early and often. Breadth was negative but not overwhelmingly so.
Bulls saved the week despite terrible economic data and mostly as expected earnings news. Earnings news will end for the most part next week leaving bulls with only their HAL 9000s and a firm belief further stimulus is at hand. If that should happen it wouldn't surprise to see Da Boyz sell that news.
MDY & IWM:
It was an impressive week for Mid-Caps, but not so much for Smallies since they're more sensitive to economic data. Sure, I know, they get manipulated by the machines as well but not nearly as easily as the bigger names.
A good week on continuing light volume. Remember, we've seen heavy volume as retail exits in a panic while light volume melt-ups follow from trading desks and HFTs.
Continue to U.S. Market Sectors, Selected Stocks & Bonds
SMH, GOOG, AAPL & AMZN:
Semi's are pretty quiet overall; Google backed away from resistance for now; Apple is the High Plains Drifter; and, Amazon has all the eReader business so they say.
Financials were mixed on the week overall with a few like GS and JPM gaining while the rest drifted.
Resistance is pretty clear.
Defensive healthcare sector put on a great week but previous resistance drawn here for the past few weeks remains.
Materials are camped at resistance.
XLY & XRT:
Consumer sectors just don't have their mojo yet.
REITs are a gamble period and rise with ideas of bailouts and a panic for yield.
IYT & $BDI:
Rio Tinto reported tremendous profit growth led by iron ore shipments which should give the Baltic Dry a boost.
: No energy bill of any consequence is good news for utilities for now anyway.
IEF & TLT:
The battle between stocks and bonds has no winner this week. Amazing that the 10-year is below 2.90%!
There is no reasonable explanation for TIPs vs IEF for exampleâ¿"one is wrong.
Continue to Currency & Commodity Markets
$USD/DXY, FXE, FXY & FXA:
The poor jobs numbers and better results elsewhere take the dollar down. This is inflationary and also other currencies reflect better economic growth.
GLD & SLV:
Gold is being given a green light it seems by ideas of more stimulus.
Sure, the charts are the same since nothing's changed.
$WTIC/CRUDE OIL & & XLE:
Charts are little changed here as well.
DBB & JJC:
Base metals were strong most of the week only to fade in the end at resistance.
XME & FCX:
Resistance holds for XME and FCX tries to breakout and is just shy of doing so.
DBA & JJG:
Grain markets were on fire most of the week from Russian export embargo but then succumbed to profit-taking.
A very good week now meets Mr. Resistance.
Continue to Overseas & Emerging Markets
All problems resolved in the eurozone soâ¿¦nothing to see hereâ¿¦move along.
EM's doing well but everything seems to be doing about the same thing making diversification tasks difficult for portfolio managers.
Perhaps I'll have to be a believer since it's the trade you don't make that gets you.
South Korean markets still in rally mode with Samsung leading the way.
The next few ETFs are mostly commodity related which are doing well.
EWC, EWZ & RSX:
Most commodity market related ETFs are in rally mode with base metals driving prices.
India markets at resistance even while the government frets over inflation.
No change in chart, no change in comment.
The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
Today was a victory for bulls despite the negative headline. They're pinning their hopes on more stimulus from QE2 and they won't be denied so any dip will be bought.
The market is in the hands of traders and trading desks with elaborate algorithm based trading programs which can be launched at any moment. Today's reversal was no surprise since I tweeted at the open that this could well happen today despite horrible news. The worse the news the more likely QE2 will occur. It seems perverse and it is but it's the market we have now. We must deal with it.
Have a great weekend!
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The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at
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