Sometimes when a serious bearish trend is developing premature buying can be just so much wasted buying power. This is what occurred Monday as a 200 point DJIA gain sputtered to an indecisive but mildly positive finish. My instincts tell me, barring any unforeseen news, the entire week may be like one really long Fed day.
You know how it goes -- there's not much happening all that day until the announcement at 2:15 PM. But the news cycle is impossible to predict and there will be important economic data still to come this week. If that data's poor, look for markets to rally on QE3 hopes. Then we have ongoing domestic and overseas bank turmoil that remains a news rollercoaster.
The Gadhafi situation was probably inevitable and it remains to be seen who the rebels really are. One thing has been suggested is
will be based on Sharia Law. And it still remains to be seen how removing Mubarak in Egypt made MENA
Middle East and North Africa a better place given U.S. short-term strategic interests. Perhaps Gadhafi's downfall will encourage more Arab uprisings throughout the region.
Meanwhile back at Wall and Broad we're concerned regarding our own financial sectors and specifically banks. The tape is saying there's some really ugly news ahead. Further it isn't good that Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein has hired a top-notch
criminal defense attorney
. Is this the next shoe the tape has sniffed out?
And, if that wasn't enough
ran about secret monies funneled to Wall Street and overseas banks leaving Main Street with another bitter pill to stomach.
Gold prices again soared, giving new meaning to the term "parabolic." The dollar and bonds were basically flat while crude oil prices, after declining initially on thoughts of Libyan oil returning to the market proved premature, rallied to close higher.
Volume was lighter than recent periods but still high by three month averages. Breadth per the WSJ was slightly negative overall.
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is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
McClellan Summation Index
is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
Continue to Concluding Remarks
This could be a really long week of churn before Bernanke's speech. Investors may be hoping he can save them somehow with new liquidity injections or more open market operation tricks.
One thing's very troubling and that's the financial sector led lower by banks. There's more to what's going on there than has been revealed. There's another shoe to drop. Blankfein with a criminal attorney on board must mean he's been tipped off that he can expect visitors with a warrant and cuffs. That would be something.
The only thing on tap Tuesday is more rumors and New Home Sales. Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday should make some noise as will Jobless Claims on Thursday ending with GDP data and Bernanke's speech on Friday.
Let's see what happens.
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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of
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