The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- In my Oct. 27 commentary,
3 Reasons Stock ETF Investors Should Continue To Tread Lightly
, I pointed to the fact that the monthlong stock surge had not come from the spectacular earnings season; in fact, the average return for individual securities on the session following a third-quarter earnings report was -0.21%, suggesting that the entire October run-up emanated from enthusiasm for pan-European cooperation.
It follows that articles that primarily attribute falling equity markets to the U.S. Super Committee's failure to reach an accord are misleading. Granted, political dysfunction does increase uncertainty about the future, and the markets can't stand uncertainty. Nevertheless, the only real thing moving the benchmarks has been the outlook for debt crisis containment in Europe.
Need proof? As recently as September, many economists were predicting a U.S.-based recession based on U.S. data points. Yet that talk has been placed on the back burner after phenomenal earnings growth, a seven-month low in unemployment claims and GDP economic acceleration.
(Note: GDP growth in the U.S. is far from superb. However, we should recall that it has gone from 0.4% in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2 to 2.0% in Q3. The average GDP forecast for Q4 GDP growth currently exceeds 3%.)
and become a fan on
With a number of building blocks in place -- stellar E/P yields, historically attractive P/Es, healthy corporate balance sheets, accelerating U.S. GDP growth, subsiding inflation in some emerging markets -- why have markets shed 100 points on the S&P 500 in a matter of weeks? What's behind the 8% pullback from recent highs and 12.5% since April of 2011?
The answer is as simple as a chart of the
Currency Shares Euro Trust
. The euro-dollar via FXE tumbled in September, as did stock assets. FXE rebounded sharply in October, as did stock assets.
Unfortunately, the European Union's chances for preventing its debt woes from going viral appear to be waning. Specifically, in November, FXE is on the decline once more.
In my estimation, I would stick with the low volatility ETFs and non-cyclicals if FXE remains below a 50-day moving average. In this regard, I've been advocating funds like
PowerShares S&P Low Volatility
JP Morgan Alerian MLP
On the flip side, Santa Claus may yet ride his sleigh in December. We'll know it . . . if FXE climbs back above (and stays back above) its 50-day trendline.
Below are seven ETFs that would likely rocket higher if confidence in the euro-dollar returns. These are some of same index trackers that significantly outpaced the S&P 500 during a month when FXE gained substantial ground.
>>To see these funds in action, visit the
portfolio on Stockpickr.
You can listen to the ETF Expert Radio Show
. You can follow me on Twitter
Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a Web site that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial and/or its clients may hold positions in ETFs, mutual funds and investment assets mentioned. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert website. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships. You may review additional ETF Expert at the site.