Deere (DE) - Get Deere & Company Report shares have rallied sharply since the U.S. presidential election, as hopes about a rebound in manufacturing continue to rise. Investors will be looking to see whether the run can continue, even if infrastructure spending doesn't amount to what investors are expecting.
Aegis Capital analyst Igor Maryasis noted that the sector has become less pessimistic, with both farmers and equipment dealers adjusting to the cycle after years of challenges. "We've seen the mood, especially among dealers, beginning to improve somewhat in the fall of 2016 and there appears to have been another notable step upward following November elections," Maryasis wrote in a research note ahead of earnings.
Investors will be looking to hear what Deere management, led by CEO Sam Allen, think about upcoming policies from President Trump, including ideas on infrastructure spending and tax reform.
Earlier this month, Trump said more details on the tax policies he intends to propose would be forthcoming in two or three weeks.
The farm equipment maker is expected to report first-quarter earnings of 58 cents a share on $4.67 billion in sales, according to analyst estimates compiled by Yahoo! Finance.
Investors will also be parsing the company's results to see whether North American and European equipment trends are starting to rebound.
Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Casey believes that both areas will improve in 2017, even if they're at relatively weak levels. "While December farm equipment demand trends remained weak, we continue to believe Europe demand will likely begin to improve mid-2017 and North American demand will bottom during 2017," Casey wrote in a note ahead of earnings.
Over the past 12 months, shares of Deere have gained nearly 38%, compared to the near 22% gain in the S&P 500.
Here are five ETFs that may benefit if investors like Deere's first-quarter results.
iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF
The $31.2 million iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI) - Get iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF Report has Deere make up 7.72% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.39%.
Morningstar analyst Keith Schoonmaker believes that the company can maintain its margins of around 12%, thanks to pricing strength. "Notably, this performance is still better than what we forecast for competitors AGCO and CNH, owing to Deere's wide economic moat rating and recent success with new products in South America (where Deere has enjoyed market share gains)," Schoonmaker wrote in a research note ahead of earnings. Morningstar has a $104 price target on shares.
VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF
First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF
Aegis Capital's Maryasis, who has a hold rating and a $110 price target highlighted the recent Ag Producer Sentiment Barometer, which saw increased optimism for a brighter outlook.
The $4.6 million First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF (FTAG) - Get First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF Report has Deere make up 4.44% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.70%.
Credit Suisse analyst Jamie Cook wrote the company has shown it can out-earn its rivals, as the cycle goes on. "DE has proven the company has increased earnings significantly on a more severe trough," Cook wrote in a note ahead of earnings. "In addition to generating above average margins/returns throughout a cycle, we believe in the next cycle DE is also equally focused on outgrowing its peers by segment."
Credit Suisse has an outperform rating and a $120 price target on Deere shares.
VanEck Vectors Natural Resources ETF
SPDR Global Dow ETF