Nike's (NKE) - Get Report fiscal third-quarter will shine a light on how it plans to win back market share from Adidas and Reebok, as well as what the company's China business looks like in a world that looks headed toward protectionism.
Jefferies analyst Randal Kronik expects the Mark Parker-led company to gain share in running from Adidas, given that consumers are starting to flock back towards Nike in the space.
"The number of Nike SKUs in Top 60 Sellers in the Running category increased, taking share from Adidas & Other brands (PUMA, New Balance, etc.) as Nike SKUs [stock keeping units] increased from 40 to 49, and Adidas SKUs decreased from 15 to 11," Kronik wrote in a note to investors. "Other SKU count decreased from 5 to 0. This is corroborated by our survey work, showing a deceleration in the Adidas brand in Running."
Investors will also be looking to hear what Nike has to say about China, as well as its future orders, a figure that can move the stock one way or another, depending on how it's trending.
Analysts surveyed by Yahoo! Finance expect the company to earn 53 cents a share on $8.47 billion in revenue for the period.
Over the past 12 months, shares of Nike lost nearly 15% excluding dividends, compared to the near 28% gain in the S&P 500.
Here are five ETFs that may benefit if investors like Nike's third-quarter results.
The Health & Fitness ETF
The $2.6 million The Health & Fitness ETF (FITS) has Nike make up 21.43% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.50%.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Camilo Lyon believes that even though Nike has seen some losses to Adidas, it will bounce back, but not until spring 2018 at the earliest due to a number of reasons, including share gain from Adidas still playing out, lack of innovation in Nike's immediate pipeline, availability of Jordan products and suppler signals.
"With that in mind, we suspect initial F2018 guidance will be HSD revenue growth and low teens EPS growth, implying EPS in the $2.55 range, below consensus of $2.63," Lyon wrote to clients. "Without sales accelerating, it will be difficult to argue for multiple expansion above current levels of 22.5x NTM P/E and thus we maintain our HOLD. "
iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF
DA Davidson analyst Andrew Burns, who has a buy rating and a $64 price target, believes that Nike will continue to focus on reaccelerating its North America business, as well as improving its athletic lifestyle brand presence.
"Following the F2Q conference call, we were incrementally positive on NKE's business given management's upbeat outlook on both the athletic industry and newer innovation platforms (Air VaporMax and HyperAdapt)," Burns wrote in a note to clients. "While the retail environment continues to be difficult, as evidenced by weaker traffic and greater promotions, athletic has remained a bright spot."
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund
After struggling throughout 2016, shares of Nike have rebounded in 2017, up more than 13% since the start of the year. Wedbush Securities analyst Christopher Svezia believes that orders for Nike are subdued, despite the increased investor optimism.
"While we don't expect NKE to miss 3Q17 earnings when it reports March 21, any potential upside driven by the timing of expenses could be given back in 4Q17, leaving FY17 estimates unchanged," Svezia wrote in a note to clients. "Key for the stock will be initial FY18 guidance; we feel a combination of HSD revenue growth, heightened investment spending and the anniversary of several one-time benefits in FY17 could result in EPS growth below the street (13% vs. WS at 7%)."
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF