Amazon (AMZN) - Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report is the undisputed leader in e-commerce and with recent data suggesting that the holiday shopping season was better-than-expected, Amazon's lead over its rivals may only continue to strengthen.
Data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that the non-store sales (better known as e-commerce) reached $48.9 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in December. That's up from $43.3 billion in December 2015, indicating nearly 13% growth year-over-year, a sign that Amazon is continuing to take market share from mall-based retailers.
Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein noted this bodes well for strong fourth-quarter growth, with the Prime flywheel -- Amazon Prime, fulfillment by Amazon and Marketplace -- helping "to expand [Amazon's] industry leadership."
In addition to Amazon's e-commerce business, investors will be looking to see if Amazon's profit engine, Amazon Web Services (AWS), continued to show strong results.
During the third-quarter, AWS generated $3.23 billion in revenue, with $861 million in operating income. For the third-quarter in its entirety, Amazon had $255 million in operating income, highlighting just how important AWS has become for the Jeff Bezos-led company.
Analysts surveyed by Yahoo! Finance expect the company to earn 74 cents a share on $15.75 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter.
Over the past 12 months, shares of Amazon gained nearly 40%, compared to the near 19% gain in the S&P 500.
Here are three ETFs that may benefit if investors like Amazon's fourth-quarter results.
VanEck Vectors Retail ETF
Oppenheimer's Helfstein, who rates Amazon outperform with a $900 price target, believes that Amazon is likely to beat revenue estimates, but margins could be an issue in the interim.
"While the valuation is within its historical range, we see risks to consensus margin estimates as we believe the Street is underestimating the impact of the recently announced investment cycle, which we estimate could last for 18 months," Helfstein wrote to clients. Meanwhile, we expect strong top-line US eCommerce performance, driven by continued share gains during the holiday and shopping season, and better than expected AWS margins, driven by server efficiency."
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund
The $10.8 billion Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) - Get Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund Report has Amazon make up 12.59% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.15%.
Jefferies analyst Brian Fitzgerald expects Amazon to beat expectations for the fourth-quarter, led by continued market share gains. "We expect a Beat quarter on better than expected top-line growth (~180bps ahead of consensus expectations) and continuing market share gains," Fitzgerald wrote to clients. Jefferies has a buy rating and a $950 price target on shares.
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF
Aegis Capital analyst Victor Anthony expects Amazon to continue growing revenue by more than 20% over the next two years, thanks to Prime, artificial intelligence and other areas. "We expect Amazon's investments in Prime, infrastructure, devices, digital content, AI, and newer areas such as groceries, efforts with CPG and in categories such as apparel, to strengthen its competitive moat and allow it to continue to take share from traditional retail," Anthony wrote in a note to clients.
Aegis Capital has a Buy rating and a $953 price target on shares.