Stifel sees stay-at-home directives and retail closures as a potential catalyst for eBay, putting a $45 price target on the shares. That indicates 16% upside from the San Jose, Calif., company's Friday morning trading.
Investors won’t have to wait long to get some color from management. First-quarter earnings are set to be reported Wednesday, and eBay’s potential impact from covid-19 will be top of mind for analysts on the earnings call.
Right now, Wall Street is estimating first-quarter profit of about 73 cents a share. That’s about an 8.2% bump from the year-earlier quarter.
But beyond the fundamentals, there’s another big reason for investors to be paying attention to shares of eBay right now: It’s working.
By that I mean that it’s actually showing investors positive performance in 2020.
That’s a bigger deal than it may seem: A look back at prior crisis investing environments over the past three and a half decades shows stocks that have positive six-month relative strength saw a 78.4% chance of a positive one-month return.
That’s about a 50% higher win rate than the average S&P 500 stock.
And with eBay testing breakout territory this week, it’s good reason to pay attention to the shares right now.
To figure out how to trade it, we’re turning to the chart for a technical look:
EBay had been range-bound heading into the covid-19 selloff, bouncing repeatedly between $34 support and $39 resistance.
Following an over-done selloff, the shares have quickly snapped back into their former trading range. And they’re testing that aforementioned $39 breakout level in today’s trading session.
Put simply, a material push through $39 makes continued upside look much more likely.
What makes $39 a significant price for eBay? It all boils down to buyers and sellers.
The $39 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; from late January through March it was a spot where sellers had previously been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers had been to buy.
A move through $39 means that new bids have been strong enough to absorb the supply glut immediately above that price level.
From a risk-management standpoint, we don’t want to see $34 support get violated. If it does, then eBay is likely to follow-through to the downside. That makes it a logical level to park a protective stop.
Meanwhile, eBay looks strong ahead of next week’s earnings call.
This stock doesn’t tend to have volatile reactions to earnings. Right now, options imply investors are pricing in around a 4.65% one-day reaction. That makes an earnings whiff less likely to derail the bullish price action in this trade.
From a trading standpoint, eBay is working right now. And until that changes, it’s worth owning.