The latest negative catalyst comes from earnings, and for cannabis investor the pain is all too real. This group -- be it Aurora Cannabis, Canopy Growth (CGC) - Get Report , Cronos Group (CRON) - Get Report , Aphria (APHA) - Get Report , you name it -- has been under severe selling pressure over the past few months.
After a strong initial rally in the first quarter, many of the stocks traded sideways as bulls hoped they were simply consolidating before the next move higher. In the second quarter, that plan started to show some cracks and as summer has worn on most have began to really break down.
Aurora Cannabis isn't an exception to this generalization as its stock remains locked in a brutal downtrend. It doesn't help that the company's revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter came in below expectations. Further, margins weakened as well.
While many of the cannabis companies have balance sheets that can endure quarterly losses and free cash flow deficits, the stocks' valuations don't support them when they continually miss analysts' expectations.
Let's look at Aurora Cannabis to see where investors might step up and support the name.
Trading Aurora Cannabis Stock
As you can see above, Aurora Cannabis shares rallied right into downtrend resistance (blue line) and actually closed above the 50-day moving average on Wednesday. With Thursday's post-earnings action, though, it only solidified these two trends as resistance.
Until Aurora Cannabis can reclaim the 50-day moving average and close above downtrend resistance, it remains at risk for lower prices.
Presently, shares are also below the 20-day moving average, which has acted as a moderate form of resistance since ACB stock broke below this mark in April (purple arrow).
Should Aurora Cannabis stock fail to reclaim the 20-day moving average, look for another test of $5.40. This area was an important support level in late August and early September.
If it fails to support ACB stock, then a decline to channel support is in the cards, with $5 not far below that. That would mark a near-16% decline from current levels. Below that and the 2019 low of $4.83 is on the table, with the 52-week low of $4.58 just below that.
The bottom line: Bulls need to reclaim the 20-day moving average, then the 50-day, as well as hurdle downtrend resistance. On the downside, watch $5.40. Below it could signal lower prices.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.