Twilio (TWLO) - Get Report stock initially dipped in after-hours trading on Wednesday after reporting earnings and shares are rallied most of Thursday. However, they could not close in positive territory after market selling accelerating, with Twilio stock falling 92 basis points in Thursday's session.
The stock fell some 6% in after-hours trading despite Twilio beating on earnings and revenue estimates, as well as raising its full-year outlook for both earnings and revenue. We'll chalk up the fall to a knee-jerk reaction coupled with a few jitters from the regular-hours trading session where the Fed caused a spike in volatility.
Like Shopify (SHOP) - Get Report , which is hitting new highs on its better-than-expected earnings report, Twilio comes with a lofty valuation. But if the company continues to beat on expectations and then raise expectations even more, it's hard for investors to be a seller, at this point.
While management only gave a slight bump to full-year revenue -- $1.102 billion to $1.111 billion was upped to $1.113 billion to $1.119 billion -- its earnings outlook climbed notably. They now expect earnings of 17 cents to 18 cents per share from a prior range of 11 cents to 13 cents per share. Consensus expectations were for 12 cents per share in earnings.
Here's what the AAP team had to say on Twilio: "We think the results and guidance from Twilio were terrific...Twilio isn't cheap, but as we detailed on our July members-only conference call here, this is a growth story with plenty of room to go."
Trading Twilio Stock
Investors in Twilio stock have a unique situation in front of them. The stock is down slightly after what appears to be a rather stellar report. More or less, shares have held recent channel support (blue line) and have reclaimed the 50-day moving average.
However, it's not hitting new highs on the move and should bulls maintain control, the stock could go on to new all-time highs.
To do so, Twilio stock must reclaim its 20-day moving average. If it can, stiff resistance at $150 is on the table and if TWLO stock can push through it, its all-time high of $151 is possible. If shares can push through all of these levels on the back of a strong quarter and if the overall market cooperates, channel resistance currently near $160 is possible.
On the downside, losing $135 would deal a tough blow to investors. Not only would Twilio stock lose the 50-day moving average, but it would fall below channel support and a key level.
Below $135 and Twilio stock may decline to the rising 200-day moving average currently at $114.60. Worth noting is that the 38.2% retracement for the one-year range is at $115.30.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.