Shares of Etsy (ETSY - Get Report) are a clear standout on Tuesday. While the overall stock market is slightly flat Tuesday morning, Etsy stock is surged more than 16.23% on the day, to $68.59, and was up more than 16.5% in early trading.
Spurring the rally is a top- and bottom-line fourth-quarter earnings beat by the e-commerce platform that investors routinely overlook, thanks to Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) , eBay (EBAY - Get Report) and others. But Tuesday's move certainly has investors' attention, as does the stock performance over the past year.
Is there still upside here or did sidelined investors miss their chance with Etsy stock? Let's look.
Trading Etsy Stock
Like most stocks, Etsy came under plenty of pressure at the start of the fourth quarter, cascading lower at the start of October. However, unlike the rest of the stock market, shares chopped higher and sideways through the rest of the quarter rather than reaching new lows around Christmas.
In any regard, where does that leave us now? For the most part, Etsy stock has been in a year-long uptrend putting in higher low after higher low. That's great for dip-buying bulls as Etsy continues to push higher. However, until recently, the $55 to $57.50 area had been multi-month resistance.
That level gave way on Monday, as Etsy erupted up to $60. Shares even briefly pulled back into the $55 to $57.50 range and reversed back higher again. This was very bullish action, although bulls had a right to have reservations about the move, given that a combination of short-covering and buyers' enthusiasm a day ahead of earnings could have easily been the catalyst going into the print.
So where do go now? With the gap over resistance, as well as range resistance (blue line), investors now need to give Etsy a couple days to digest. What I want to see now is Etsy stock stay over range resistance and find it as support. For short-term traders, I would watch Etsy stock on Wednesday. Should it finish strong on Tuesday, look for a lower open on Wednesday that quickly goes positive. If so, it could setup a solid short-term long trade. If it finishes the day weak, it will be imperative for bulls to keep it over prior resistance.
Etsy Stock Earnings
Revenue of roughly $200 million exploded more than 48% year-over-year and beat estimates by about $5 million. Earnings of 32 cents per share came in vastly ahead of expectations calling for 20 cents per share. Margins surged as Etsy increased its profitability, while all of these factors are contributing to Tuesday's big move.
At this midpoint of its guidance, revenue of $788 million for fiscal 2019 (the period Etsy is just beginning) came in slightly ahead of consensus estimates calling for $776 million in full-year sales.
Analysts currently expect the company to earn 70 cents per share in fiscal 2019, which admittedly leaves the company richly valued at almost 100 times forward earnings. However, it's clear that Amazon HomeMade isn't denting Etsy the way investors first expected and the company continues to fire on all cylinders.