Shares of Salesforce (CRM) - Get salesforce.com, inc. Report fell almost 4% into the close on Monday, ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings results. It's not getting much reprieve on Tuesday, closing lower by 91 basis points to $157.05.
Apparently a top- and bottom-line beat wasn't enough to impress investors, who continue to sell it down on Tuesday. However, after the quarter, I feel that this name -- on the back of continued strength in enterprise software and cloud computing -- has become a buy-the-dips candidate.
Trading Salesforce Stock
The first thing to keep in mind here is how hot Salesforce has been. While the name did drop from $160 to $115 in about six weeks, its rebound has been equally impressive. Coming into the report, shares were within pennies of its 52-week and all-time high of $166.15. In that sense, investors have been anything but bearish.
But it's clear that, unlike a stock such as Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - Get Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Report , another holding in the Action Alerts PLUS member club, there was just too much optimism ahead of the numbers. Otherwise CRM stock would have undone Monday's losses and ripped higher on Tuesday.
So what now?
Salesforce stock had been making a series of higher lows (blue circles) since the November lows. With Tuesday's decline, that run is over, as is the multi-month run of Salesforce stock staying above its 21-day moving average.
A close over $160 would be bullish, not only in the sense that it gets Salesforce back over the 21-day moving average, but also higher than its prior highs from late September and early October. Letting Salesforce work off some steam wouldn't be the worst thing either. For instance, a pullback down to the $150 to $152.50 area would put it about 8% to 10% off its highs and get it firmly into buy-the-dip territory.
Further, this area was former resistance on the way up and it would be bullish to see it now act as support. The 50-day moving average is resting near $150, while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for the 2019 range comes into play near $152. Until CRM proves otherwise, this is a buy-the-dips stock, especially if this area holds as support.
That's particularly true after the company's most recent quarter. Earnings of 70 cents per share beat estimates by 15 cents or 27%, but GAAP earnings of 46 cents per share smashed consensus expectations by 36 cents. Revenue of $3.6 billion grew 26.3% year-over-year and also topped expectations.
Guidance showed that another year of strong growth is expected.
While the company's Q1 outlook was slightly below consensus expectations, their full-year outlook was roughly in-line with expectations. That's got investors comfortable with another year of strong and consistent growth.
The AAP team was impressed with what management had to say about its forward growth, noting that due to dramatic secular trends in business and technology, customer relationship management, as in CRM, has "made it the most important market in enterprise software."
From the AAP Team: "It's why we love Salesforce and continue to highly value names with exposure to the cloud space such as Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Microsoft Corporation Report , Amazon (AMZN) - Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report and the rest of the cloud kings."
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.