The decline comes after the company's disappointing fiscal first-quarter results, where FedEx missed on earnings estimates and reported in-line sales. Worse, guidance was disappointing, too.
The post-earnings reaction has sent shares of FedEx back to its range lows, but importantly, not new lows. With a bit more selling pressure, though, FedEx stock could be there and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising.
Trading FedEx Stock
Above is a weekly chart of FedEx stock, which shows the massive move lower from Wednesday's action. Both last week and this week, shares failed to reclaim the $177 level, which has proven significant over the last few years.
Right now it's down into the $149 area, which has been a significant level of range support since Q4 2018. FDX stock briefly broke below this mark last month, hitting a low near $147.24.
Should the $149 level fail to buoy FedEx stock, a retest of those August lows are not very far off. A break below them thrust shares down to new multi-year lows and straight into no man's land.
The question many investors are now asking themselves is, will it hold?
FedEx, United Parcel Services (UPS) - Get Report and the USPS experience a huge rush during the holiday season. But with the latest quarterly report, FedEx stock is missing that bullish Q4 sentiment and catalyst.
Earnings of $3.05 per share missed estimates by 11 cents, while revenue of $17.05 billion was in-line with analysts' expectations and flat year-over-year. Losing business from Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report was one factor, while the trade war was another, according to management.
Worse, though, management had to cut its full-year earnings and revenue outlook. They now expect earnings in a range from $11 to $13 per share, well below consensus expectations of $14.28 per share. At the midpoint, FedEx's guidance is ~16% below analysts' estimates. (Here's what analysts are already saying about the stock.)
That puts a serious negative catalyst in play and really dampers sentiment. For that reason, FDX stock may very well go on to make new lows from here.
Should the bulls make a stand and rally off the $149 level, see that it reclaims the 10-week moving average, then downtrend resistance (blue line) near $165. On the downside, look for a close below $147.24.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.