Nvidia (NVDA) shares opened nearly flat on Friday despite the company reporting better-than-expected earnings on Thursday after the close of trading.
That's unexpected to say the least. The options market was pricing in move of roughly $13.50, or 6.4%. A bit into the session and shares have gone from flat to down 3%, before paring those losses to down just 1.75%.
Is this the start of a larger decline or is it a shallow dip that bulls will look to buy? That's a tough question to answer and it doesn't help that investors are examining a mixed report from Nvidia.
While the company beat on earnings and revenue expectations for its fiscal third-quarter results, fourth-quarter revenue guidance came up short of consensus estimates. The report has clearly and unsurprisingly given investors a mixed perspective of the stock on Friday.
It's a great reason for Real Money to highlight Nvidia as its Stock of the Day. Let's look at the charts to see if we can find any clues there.
Trading Nvidia Stock
We previewed Nvidia stock ahead of its earnings, mapping out the key technicals levels for both a positive and a negative reaction. In that piece, we said it would be ideal for NVDA to hold the 20-day moving average as post-earnings support.
While it would be ideal -- and could play out on Friday -- we also said it would be unrealistic to expect such close support to hold during what tends to be a rather volatile event.
As shares move lower on Friday, we need to think about the possibility of that slide continuing. Should NVDA close below the 20-day moving average at $204.40, it puts the $200 mark on the table. Aside from its psychological significance though, there's no meaningful support level near this mark.
Instead, I would have my focus on the low-$190 area. This was the main support area we flagged in the preview, highlighting that Nvidia has the rising 50-day moving average at $190.50, along with the prior 2019 highs near $193. Further, $190 has played a significant role over the past five quarters, while the 61.8% retracement is at $188 for that timeframe as well.
In short, there should be strong support in this area should Nvidia stock fall that far. If we get a dip this far, it looks like a worthy dip-buying opportunity.
Should NVDA stock embark on a rebound -- either after testing the $190 area or after holding a more nearby support mark, like the 20-day moving average -- look for a rally up the $210 to $212 area. This had been short-term resistance ahead of earnings, and investors need to see if it can give way and yield to higher prices.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.