Editor's note: Jim Cramer is taking a look at the individual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- their 2004 performance, and how they're shaping up for the year to come. Today, he completes the series with Part 5. This is a bonus story from RealMoney.com, where it appeared Dec. 31. (Be sure to read Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4 of this series.)
Procter & Gamble
: I had relatively low expectations for P&G in 2004, which ended up performing better than the overall market.
It gave investors a double-digit return, including the dividend. I thought folks would look for stocks with better growth prospects during an economic expansion, but it ended up that dividends were all the rage this year.
All the companies in this space are being hurt by higher commodity costs, but P&G still holds all the cards when it comes to setting prices. This will allow the stock to turn in a similar performance in 2005, and I believe that P&G will keep its above-average 23 multiple. Given expected earnings of $2.75 per share, that works out to a share price of $65.
: Phone companies were in and cable companies were out in 2004. That's the reason SBC, which will earn less than my predicted $1.50 and more like $1.44, still beat my target share price of $22. I believe that in 2005, SBC could trickle up to $30 on $1.55 in earnings. Boring. I prefer
. We don't need
and SBC in the
, either, you know.
: Poor 3M. It will beat my 2004 earnings estimate of $3.50, maybe earning as much as $3.70. But the market soured on the darned stock and was willing to pay no more than $82 for those earnings. That's quite a comedown from the $91 I thought was in the cards. I believe it could make $4 in 2005, but we still won't pay north of $100 for the darned stock -- make that $95. It's worth owning, but not worth crowing about.
: This is one of those stocks that delivers like clockwork. I thought it could earn $5 and trade to $100 on that in 2004. Sure enough, it looks like United Tech will earn that $5 and trade north of $100 for it. I bet this company can do almost $6 this year and people will bid it up to $125. United Tech is one of my absolute favorites in the Dow.
: Shouldn't be able to make much more than $2.80 in 2005, and people will pay less than $40 for it. I don't care for the stock after a huge run, and I think that 2005 is cable's year, at least when it comes to Comcast.
: This was the year we stopped revering dowdy old Wal-Mart. I thought it could make $2.20 and trade to $55 in 2004. It most likely will earn $2.30, but it wallows at $52. Let's bet on $2.45 and $57 in 2005. This is another stock not to own.
I know that there isn't a lot to make you jump up and down here. You probably aren't interested in
or United Tech, but to me, those are the best bets in this crew. You might be tempted to own drug stocks, to which I say, "Why bother?" And the tech in the Dow is old tech. Wouldn't you love to see
in this crowd?
Anyway, these target prices yield 12,547 for the Dow in 2005, which represents a 16% increase over where we are now. Not too shabby; in fact, it looks like another good year, especially if you are
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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Comcast and Yahoo!.
James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made.
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