NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Whether it be the International Monetary Fund revising down economic forecasts (again) or a continued slowdown in German economic numbers, the gold price has managed to break through the 100-day moving average with conviction. It appears that short-term technical funds may actually be going long, but some macro buying of upside calls is helping sentiment.
The leverage of the gold equities to the underlying commodities is apparent as both Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Get Report and Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) - Get Report have rallied by double-digit percentage points while the underlying is up 3% in the past week. The next big target for gold is $1,172, which is the 200-day moving average, and as I am hopeful this rally is sustainable since it has been led by silver and euro strength, I can't get too bullish ... yet. Palladium is right at its 200-day moving average, continuing its recovery.
Platinum has also joined the commodity rally today. You probably would not want to be short platinum ahead of Volkswagen's (VLKAY) meeting with German lawmakers tomorrow, as one item on the table would be larger catalysts with increased platinum content.
Base metals are fairly quiet, as are Glencore's (GLNCY) shares, but there has been some interesting movement from some of Glencore's competitors. Both Trafigura and Vitol have proven that remaining private is better than having public equity, as they have raised billions at improved terms. Vitol raised $8 billion from 57 banks and Trafigura raised $2 billion at lower rates than the previous facility. In light of Glencore's five-year bond pricing in a 50% chance of default just a week ago, this highlights a tremendous divergence between bank equity and debt analysts.
Energy prices continued to rally ahead of today's API numbers. The call is for an inventory rise of 2 million barrels after last week's 500,000-barrel draw. The interesting thing in WTI is that the put-call skew for December has dropped below 2% for the first time this year. Producers are going to be looking beyond year end at this point to put hedges in place, but I think the high-yield market is stabilizing a bit with the oil price recovery. Numbers from the Energy Information Administration continue to show a rise in production in the fourth quarter and 2016. Whether I am right about Vladimir Putin's master plan in the Middle East domination or not, the oil price is recovering and the ruble is at its highest level in two months.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 1:13 p.m. EDT on Real Money Pro on Oct. 6.
At the time of publication, Cross was long GDX, although positions may change at any time.