Dividend Preview: 5 Big Stocks That Want to Pay You More in 2015

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- You might not realize it, but 2015 is a historic time for income investors. That's because, this year, the dividend yield of the S&P 500 is fast approaching territory we haven't seen since the financial crisis of 2008.

As I write, the spread between the S&P 500's dividend yield and the yield of 10-year treasuries has never been higher for a sustained stretch of time. In fact, it's only the third time in as many decades that the difference between those two yields has gone positive. That means that the big stock index currently pays a bigger dividend on a relative basis than it ever has before.

The important takeaway from that is that, thanks largely to record-low interest rates, dividend stocks are a much more attractive target for income investors than any of the alternatives. And obviously, there's no shortage of stocks that pay a far higher yield than the broad-based S&P 500. But to find the biggest benefit from dividends, it's not enough to simply buy names with big payouts today. You've got to think about what they'll be paying tomorrow too.

So instead of chasing yield, we'll try to step in front of the next round of stock payout hikes.

For our purposes, that "crystal ball" is composed of a few factors: namely a solid balance sheet, low payout ratio and a history of dividend hikes. While those items don't guarantee dividend announcements in the next month or three, they do dramatically increase the odds that management will hike their cash payouts to shareholders. And they've helped us grab on to dividend hikes with a high success rate in the past.

Without further ado, here's a look at five big stocks that could be about to increase their dividend payments in the next quarter. Think of it as your dividend preview.

Exxon Mobil

Up first is oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Get Report, a stock that's hitting some historic dividend levels of its own in 2015. Exxon currently pays a higher dividend yield than any time since 1994. No, that's not just the result of bigger payouts; it has a lot to do with Exxon's 16% selloff over the course of the last six months. As oil prices start to stabilize, XOM could be worth a second look here.

For now, Exxon pays a 69-cent quarterly dividend check to investors that works out to a 3.14% yield.

Exxon is the biggest energy company in the world, with proven reserves of more than 25.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, about half of which is made up of oil. Exxon's big exposure to natural gas has been paying off lately, as nat gas prices finally caught a bid last year and reduced XOM's exposure to crude during the recent collapse. Even at these depressed prices, Exxon is well-positioned to come out the other side in good shape, especially if it's able to snag bargains from smaller distressed oil companies.

At the same time that many other energy companies have been selling downstream assets, Exxon's integrated business provides another bit of separation from crude prices. The firm's refining and retail businesses may have low margins, but they shine in environments where commodity prices are collapsing.

Management is going to want to boost shareholder returns any way they can in 2015. If history is any indication, look out for a raise late next month.

International Business Machines

$159 billion IT company International Business Machines (IBM) - Get Report is another beaten-down stock that should be on income investors' radar again. IBM has done a whole lot of nothing in the last few months, basing after an earnings-induced selloff in October. But shares are starting to show some momentum again, and shares trade for a gaunt 10 times earnings today.

IBM also pays out a $1.10 quarterly dividend check today, which adds up to a 2.7% yield. Investors should expect a dividend hike alongside next month's earnings call.

IBM is one of the largest technology stocks on the planet, selling everything from hardware to software to services for enterprise customers. The firm was one of the first PC makers to see the writing on the wall a decade ago and exit the computer business. Because of that, it was able to entrench itself in the lucrative enterprise IT space. IBM's scale is a blessing and a curse; while it gives the firm unmatched customer relationships and capabilities, it also makes moving the growth needle difficult (thus October's drop-off).

From a financial standpoint, though, IBM is in good shape. The firm's debt load is reasonable, its profitability is excellent, and its dividend payout ratio is on the low end of its historic range at just 20%. Growth or not, IBM looks cheap relative to peers in 2015.

UnitedHealth Group

It's true that large-cap health insurer UnitedHealth Group (UNH) - Get Report isn't exactly a "dividend stock" -- it's not hard to beat the firm's 1.3% payout elsewhere in the health care sector. But look at UNH from a total returns standpoint, and things look a whole lot more impressive: UNH is up nearly 12% since the start of 2015, beating the S&P 500 by nearly quadruple. Tack a dividend hike onto that this year, and it might just be enough to warrant income investors' attention.

The good news is that UNH is likely to announce a dividend hike in the next few months.

UnitedHealth provides health coverage to more than 40 million members, but its network actually extends to more than 85 million individuals who use some soft of health offering from UNH. That enormous network size means that UNH is able to negotiate better deals with medical providers and spread risks across a larger pool of subscribers.

By moving more toward being a service provider, rather than an insurer, UNH is able to earn solid margins on back-office services without exposure to as many balance sheet risks.

The firm's business diversification doesn't end there. UNH is one of the few U.S.-based health insurers with international exposure, reaching some 125 countries in all. Buyers are clearly in control of shares of UNH right now. This stock's momentum is pushing shares to new all-time highs this winter. Consider jumping in ahead of a possible dividend hike at the end of spring.

Reynolds American

Nothing goes together quite like dividends and so-called "sin stocks". Case in point: Reynolds American (RAI) . Reynolds is the No. 2 tobacco company in the U.S., a position that's going to get a lot bigger with the pending acquisition of Lorillard (LO) . For now, RAI's flagship is Camel (it's selling big brands Kool, Winston, and Salem as part of its merger, taking on Lorillard's Newport instead).

While the cigarette business is dying a slow death in the U.S., Reynolds has doubled down on growing categories such as smokeless tobacco and now e-cigarettes. The firm's Vuse brand is one of the strongest in the space, and it's one of the few places on Reynolds' income statement that's actually seeing growth. The slow decline of American cigarette sales is the key to the equation. It means that the core business isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and RAI meanwhile has time to crack new markets and pay off shareholders.

The significance of the U.S. market to RAI comes from the fact that the firm sold off its international rights to Japan Tobacco in 1999, losing high-growth markets for its big brands. The Lorillard merger should be transformational, and it's likely to bring even bigger dividends once the two firms get past integration costs. For now, RAI pays a 3.6% dividend yield, but I'd expect that payout to get boosted at the end of next month.

Discover Financial Services

Last up on our list of potential dividend hikes is Discover Financial Services (DFS) - Get Report. Discover has built a stellar business out of being the No. 4 payment network, a feat that has a lot to do with the fast growth of electronic payments. As a rising tide lifts all ships in the payments space, Discover should continue to rally. Right now, the firm pays a 1.6% dividend, but that looks ready to rise in as soon as next week.

Discover isn't just a payment network -- it's also a bank. The firm offers savings and checking accounts, CDs and loan products, and the availability of cheap money has made consumer lending a lucrative part of DFS' income statement. That high demand for loans means that DFS is able to keep high underwriting standards, keeping overall risk levels low. Big, cheap deposit bases give DFS more options when selling consumers on its card network, and that's something that second-tier rivals such as MasterCard (MA) - Get Report don't have.

The introduction of third party Discover Card issuers has the potential to increase the firm's visibility as a payment network, but it's not likely to help unseat top-dog Visa (V) from its throne. But that's just fine. With plenty of growth opportunity in the electronic payments business, DFS has more than enough runway to accelerate on in 2015. Stay tuned for a potential dividend hike before the firm reports earnings next month.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Author had no positions in stocks mentioned.