This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:47 a.m. EDT on April 19.
NEW YORK (
) -- Below are 12 events that could crater the U.S. stock market:
Politics over here.
odds of winning the presidential election in November exceeds 65% --
it now stands at 60.5%
-- and growing evidence that the Democrats will lose control of the Senate. (On
probability of a Republican-controlled Senate
now stands at 62%.)
Politics over there.
Eurozone tail risk reemerges. François Hollande wins French presidency and disrupts EU bailout efforts. (Current
have Hollande at 1/8, Sarkozy is 9/2.)
The 10-year U.S. note yield drops below 1.90%. (It now is at 1.99%.)
High-frequency economic data deteriorate, and odds of a recession grow in the U.S. Signs emerge that China and India will land hard.
Actually experienced, a fiscal cliff dents the economy, threatens self-sustaining recovery and adversely impacts corporate profits and business/consumer confidence.
Commodities abruptly turn lower, more deflationary signals.
Strategists grow more bullish.
Perma-bulls Abby Joseph Cohen at
and Binky Chadha at
raise their year-end
targets. (Remember their ridiculously optimistic
of 2008 year-end S&P 500 targets of 1650/1675? They were off in their forecasts by a mere 700 S&P points!)
Home prices and sales activity move lower over the balance of the year, negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending.
Any number of exogenous events -- a
policy mistake, crude ramps in price, Middle East tensions escalate, China lands hard and pulls back from U.S. Treasury note and bond purchases (fueling a sharp rise in our interest rates), a large ETF blow up, another flash crash,
is forced to sell more stores (it employees 350,000 companywide) and so on.
Domestic equity mutual fund outflows accelerate.
Apple experiences a fundamental blip or misstep of execution.
Technical deterioration in the markets.
The S&P 500 takes out its 200-day moving average.
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.