It's stock blowout Tuesday.
Unless takeover speculation erupts and spreads to the trading desks of all the bulge brackets (aka the major investment banks), Netflix (NFLX) shares on Tuesday are likely to stay circling the toilet bowl. Analysts will have a hard time defending the name, even though they are trying to do so.
The reality is that profit estimates for 2018 and 2019 now need to be aggressively marked down. In turn, the air needs to come out of not only Netflix but other high-flying tech stocks such as Facebook (FB) . And more broadly, investors need to reassess how much they are paying to own companies. Valuations are far from cheap across the board.
Look for that money to rotate into big-cap value tech names such as (IBM) . Hey, at the moment that 4.3% IBM dividend yield is looking real sexy relative to Netflix shares.
Bigger picture: Netflix will be just fine. What investors are forgetting (and do so with Amazon (AMZN) ) is that with high-growth tech there often will be missed quarters that come out of the blue. It usually proves to be a mere blip on the radar screen of a longer-term growth thesis.
Roku (ROKU) had been coming on strongly the past month (up 7.4%), but that rally is likely to be stomped out in light of the Netflix whiff. If Netflix could miss on subs, then so could Roku (and Roku is still seeing its bottom line pressured, too). Disney (DIS) also is worth watching given its exposure to traditional TV (probably really stunk in the second quarter) and various real-time content.
An odd headline winner in Tuesday's session could be AT&T (T) /Time Warner. Netflix highlighted the proposed merger (which is being contested -- read more on TheStreet's sister publication The Deal) as a key competitive threat.
Meanwhile, early numbers I am seeing on Amazon Prime Day 2018 appear to be strong in the face of the site outage. What this means: another monster holiday season for Amazon and a potentially less-than-fruitful one for names like Costco (COST) whose members strongly overlap with Amazon.
Action Alerts PLUS holding Goldman Sachs (GS) blew Wall Street profit forecasts away. Interestingly, the stock is down on the results. Yet another bank stock down on strong results, not a bullish sign. Key note: investment banking backlog significantly higher, Goldman said. Here comes the second half deals.
The Big Thought
Bring on 2019.
Remember that rise in the unemployment rate in June vs. May? You should.
Pointed out Jefferies strategist Sean Darby in a new note: "It is interesting to note that one of the best predictors of recessions is the U.S. unemployment rate. In general, nine months on from the trough of the unemployment rate the U.S. economy is in recession. Equally once the 3-month smoothed unemployment rate has increased by a third of a percent the economy is in a recession."
As TheStreet has written consistently of late, the market's meandering could be signaling rockier times for the U.S. economy in 2019. Blame the trade war. Blame the waning effects of the tax cuts. Whatever the case, ignore the message of the market at your own risk.
Around the TheStreet
TheStreet's Katherine Ross will be live-blogging Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to lawmakers on Tuesday. If you are attempting to day-trade the market (I know you are), Ross' coverage on TheStreet's homepage will be a must follow. TheStreet's resident Tesla (TSLA) expert, Bret Kenwell, made a case for CEO Elon Musk to be fired. Curious if you agree -- tweet responses to @BretKenwell and @BrianSozzi.