The S&P 500 Index has finally pushed back into positive territory for 2016 after falling as much as 10% in mid-February. Richard Saperstein, principal at Treasury Partners at HighTower, said investors should not expect much more from stocks for the rest of the year except in a few select names like CVS (CVS) - Get CVS Health Corporation Report and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) - Get Stanley Black & Decker Inc. Report .
"There are a lot of risks on the horizon that we don't feel are adequately priced into the market right now," said Saperstein. "PE multiples are not attractive, earnings growth is not there and the U.S. is having a lethargic growth period and the dollar has strengthened versus non-U.S. currencies, so we simple don't see the fundamentals that will send stock prices higher."
That said, Saperstein is bullish on CVS Health, up over 6% so far in 2016, because of the strength of the consumer. He said that the consumer is employed and aching to spend now that low oil prices have put extra dollars in their pockets.
"We like the cash flow nature of that company and where it is positioned within the consumer and health care spaces," said Saperstein.
He is also bullish on Stanley Black & Decker, down 1.5% year-to-date, saying the power tool maker is well aligned with an increase in consumer spending, and also allocates capital wisely.
"They return capital a third through stock buybacks, a third in dividends and a third in M&A transactions, generally bolt-on deals," said Saperstein. "We like the cash flow nature of it and the way they reward equity investors."
Saperstein is also negative on emerging market returns, specifically China because of its need to service high debt levels for infrastructure projects even as its economy cools.
"They have a weakened currency and a very large amount of U.S. dollar denominated debt that they will have to pay," said Saperstein. "That is a problem that is going to come home to roost."