Unless prices firm up in the near term, crude oil is at risk of moving toward $63.5 and possibly $58 over the next few weeks.

This week's negative trend shift in crude could be magnified now that support from the currency markets has evaporated, as evident in the monthly trend breaks occurring in the euro. With crude having already given back 25% of 2009's rally, future support based on retracement theory would come in near $63.5 and then $58.

Jim Stellakis has over 15 years of experience in technical research and trading; he has focused primarily on the energy and utility complex at investment and trading firms such as Bear Wagner, Touradji Capital, and Millennium Partners. He is currently an independent trader and adviser to buy-side portfolio managers. Stellakis' work focuses on two areas of technical research: relative ratio analysis and price analysis of commodities using Ichimoku analysis. He is a Certified Market Technician (CMT) and holds a Series 86 license (Research Analyst). He graduated with a B.S. in Finance from St. John's University.

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