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NEW YORK (Real Money) -- It's too bad the Jackson Hole conference is today and that Fed chief Janet Yellen speaks, because that will allow people to be deluded into thinking that it isn't Russia-Ukraine that's driving things, but the Fed's machinations about rates.

It's Russia, stupid. It has been from the beginning, because while Europe's only 6% of the world's population, it is about 30% of the GDP.

The banks, the employment, the sales -- they are all at risk with Russian trucks into the Ukraine, which then sends down the European markets which, even after all of these years, still ding us.

Now, I know that the rush into the domestic retailers is, in part, because they are way behind and, in part, because they have nothing to do with overseas. They aren't hurt by the ubiquitous strong dollar.

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But the industrials? They need to take a quick hit. The banks that ran yesterday might have some momentum, but a 2.25% 10-year is more likely than a 2.5%, if Russia-Ukraine flairs again.

So, let the ideologues who don't really do much work and just opine on the Fed prattle on. Putin will determine the next 3%, not Yellen. 

Editor's note: This article was originally published on RealMoney at 7:09 a.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 22.