This was originally published on RealMoney. It is being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
They disappeared. The darned sellers disappeared. The sellers of
. The sellers of
National Oilwell Varco
( XTO) and
. The sellers of
Where the heck did they go? Think about it:
today, despite a hurricane coming to the Gulf!
This is what I mean is driving me and everyone else crazy. This is what I mean when I say these
have lost control of their clients, their money and their minds.
Think about it: If you weren't desperate, you could have sold a little yesterday and a little today. You got much better prices today. These hedge-fund young guns either don't know how to trade -- use a discipline, work the order, try to get a good price -- or they have to send money back constantly because they are doing so badly and they are liquidating.
What's so unnerving is that the prices of the stocks have so much more to do with the hedge funds that buy, sell and
them than they do with how the companies are doing. Ultra Pete, up more than 6, didn't just discover more oil.
didn't discover a new shale. Freeport actually shaded down numbers, for heaven's sake. It didn't matter a hill of beans that National Oil didn't get any orders.
This is why this market has become an intense game of gaming other funds, not the
. It is why the market has become so repulsive to so many.
Now, there are major trends that can be adhered to. I have said
that the banks and homebuilders and retailers and consumers of oil and gas bottomed on July 15. Not all, obviously:
( LEH) and
are classic outliers, as will be
. These stocks have their own peculiar patterns, like the 6-point run in
on Friday and the 5-point decline yesterday.
doesn't seem to want to quit.
has moved huge, some of it no doubt attributed to the monster buy orders from Bob Toll and Joel Rassman, 646,000 and 85,000 respectively.
But the commodities? You tell me when three or four funds are done forced selling, and I will tell you when you have a trade. You tell me when the whole shareholder base turned around, and you are going to have an investment. You tell me when China reignites and Europe cuts rates, and you've got a reason behind that investment.
But right now, the only call you need is from an
broker saying, "That big hedge fund didn't reload, he didn't come back today."
And that, not the
, is the home run.
This was originally published on
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Mario Gabelli, CEO of GAMCO Investors, explains why private equity will come back, Cablevision's stock will rise and activist investing is here to stay.
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