This post appeared Wednesday on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.
Is there a drilling compromise in the works? Nancy Pelosi, sensing disaster for the Democrats, seems to be saying these days that she is willing to deal. I can't tell you how massive this is, if it is the case. There are lots of people who say, "Wait a second, even if everything goes right, there won't be any drilling until 2013." To which I say, "Perfect, because you have to understand the way drilling works."
Right now there are no available rigs until 2012, particularly deepwater rigs. There just aren't any. That's been the point we have been hearing over and over again, not that anyone cares, with the plummet in oil and natural gas,
except the companies that drill.
They know right now that if they want to bid on these properties, they need to have rigs, and they need to put in orders to
-- the one that would get the lion's share of business, because it has the lion's share of deep water rigs -- AS SOON AS DRILLING IS ALLOWED. That's because the Brazilians have everything locked up until then for their big find.
Further, Transocean has been debating returning a huge amount of capital to shareholders. I think if we get drilling, it will mean that RIG will instead turn around and give
National Oilwell Varco
, the biggest rigmaker, a slew of orders for ships due 2012. That takes care of NOV's visibility for as long as is necessary. Given the huge nat gas finds at prices of $2 to $3 to extract, and the price even at $7 (which I don't think it will go to), this spells the exact transition we need to bridge the gap that have scared people off this stock for some 25 points now.
I own it for
. The market is difficult enough that I don't need RIG, too.
But this sure is bullish for both.
: The fact that
is up today tells you what you need to know about where the housing market is going.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long National Oilwell Varco.
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